Will SNP pick yesterday’s man to fight tomorrow's battles?

John Swinney returned to the political fray this week emerging as the politician preferred by many senior figures in the party to succeed Humza Yousaf as SNP leader and First Minister.

The party's old guard led by former Westminster boss Ian Blackford quickly made clear that the North Perthshire MSP was the man he wanted the party to rally round even hinting he would like to see Mr Swinney stand for the leadership role without a race.

Asked if Mr Yousaf's replacement should be done through a contest or a coronation, Mr Blackford did not explicitly say, but heavily suggested the latter saying there was "one individual" – naming Mr Swinney – he believed "above all else" who "has the skills to be able to navigate" the way through the forthcoming general election and the 2026 Holyrood election.

A raft of endorsements by cabinet ministers of Mr Swinney, 60, who served as First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's deputy from 2014 to 2023 quickly followed Mr Blackford's interview.

Health secretary Neil Gray, education secretary Jenny Gilruth, net zero secretary Mairi McAllan and social justice secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville all now backing him. Stephen Flynn, who reportedly ousted Mr Blackford as SNP leader in Westminster in December 2022, gave Mr Swinney his backing on Monday.

Early polling has suggested that while Mr Swinney is the favoured candidate among SNP voters should there be a contest with Kate Forbes, Ms Forbes would be by a considerable margin the public's preference.

Read more:

Unspun | Will Kate Forbes run? Why in the world would she want to?

A snap poll carried out by Ipsos gave Ms Forbes a six-point lead over Mr Swinney when voters were given a list of potential SNP contenders, with 26% of the general public backing her.

However, SNP voters were more likely to prefer Mr Swinney, with 30% saying he would make the best First Minister. This compared with 21% who wanted Forbes and 14% who selected Mr Flynn.

Ms Forbes faced a similar uphill battle last year by largely being ahead of Mr Yousaf with the general public but behind among SNP supporters.

Of course, at the time of writing, neither Mr Swinney nor Ms Forbes have officially thrown their hats into the ring and speculation is mounting that a pact may be done between the two senior backbenchers.

An insider told the Scottish Sun today that during discussions between the two senior backbenchers, Ms Forbes did “not rule out” a deal where she takes a top job in a cabinet led by Mr Swinney.

Read more:

Exclusive | Fergus Ewing warns 'repugnant' attacks on Kate Forbes will backfire on SNP

But so far the 2024 leadership contest is following a similar path as last year's with powerful members in government throwing their weight behind the establishment or continuity candidate.

This is despite the First Minister underlining that it was time for change.

Announcing the end of the power sharing pact with the Scottish Greens last Thursday, Mr Yousaf said the Bute House Agreement had "served its purpose" and with different challenges facing Scotland, change was necessary.

"The challenges of yesterday are not necessarily the challenges of tomorrow," he said underlining a willingness to work as a minority government across the chamber with MSPs from other parties – and not just rely on the Greens for support.

"I am very clear that today marks a new beginning."

Yet currently the SNP appear to be intent on turning to someone – Mr Swinney – very much associated with the past and the troubles the party is now in.

The origins of the Bute House Agreement date back to Mr Swinney falling foul of two confidence votes, in 2020 and 2021, which he survived, with the help of the Greens.

The first, when he was education secretary, was over the downgrading of exam results affecting children from some of Scotland’s poorest areas. The second came after a row over the publication of documents from the government’s legal battle with Alex Salmond.

But some in the party argue it was the unravelling of Ms Sturgeon's legacy – particularly around the commitments made in the Bute House Agreement where the two parties agreed to work together to advance potentially controversially issues to some in the SNP, including MSPs and MPs, around trans rights, and the speed of the ambition to net zero – which ultimately brought Mr Yousaf's first minister ship to its end.

Is it wise then to replace Mr Yousaf with Mr Swinney – one of the figures who helped drive Ms Sturgeon's agenda – sceptics in the party are asking.

He has remained loyal to Ms Sturgeon, now a deeply unpopular figure, during her troubles amid the ongoing police investigation.

Get Scotland's top politics newsletter straight to your inbox.

Could this association on top of all the party's current troubles be a further disadvantage as it heads towards the general election in the coming months and the Holyrood election next year?

The UK's top pollster Professor Sir John Curtice was certainly not convinced that Mr Swinney was the politician best placed to turn around the SNP's fortunes.

"Some of us remember John Swinney when he was SNP leader the first time," Professor Sir John Curtice told The Herald on Monday, "and he wasn’t really that good at it".