Scotland only part of UK to see child poverty rates fall by 2029

Using modelling from the IPPR think tank, the foundation says that if the UK Government were to adopt similar policies, some 800,000 fewer children would be in poverty.

Despite, the progress, they also warn that Scotland is still "well short of meeting the Scottish Parliament’s child poverty reduction targets." 

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First Minister John Swinney has previously said ending child poverty is the ”single most important objective” of his government.

While the new report found that Scotland’s child poverty is lower than in England and Wales, though slightly higher than Northern Ireland’s, it still shows that 21% of Scots – around 1.1 million –live in poverty.

Of these, 720,000 were working-age adults, 240,000 were children, and 150,000 were pensioners.

There are also significant variations in poverty rates within Scotland.

At least one in three children in Glasgow are living in poverty. The city has also seen child poverty increase by 5-10 percentage points since 2014/15.

Glenrothes and Mid Fife, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, North Ayrshire and Arran all have child poverty rates higher than the national average of 24%.

Meanwhile, Edinburgh South, West Aberdeenshire, Kincardine, and Edinburgh West are all significantly lower.

Chris Birt, the JRF’s associate director for Scotland, said: “The First Minister has said eradicating child poverty is his government’s number one priority, but these figures show just how far we are from that day.

“This goal couldn’t be more important which is why we must hold the Scottish Government, and whole Scottish Parliament, fully accountable to make sure the progress made thus far is not the summit of our ambitions.

“If the child poverty reduction targets are met, compared to our central scenario over 100,000 fewer children would be living in poverty – a mountain to climb but a radically better Scotland than the one we see today.

“What people in Scotland deserve is for both their governments to work in their interest.

“The Scottish Government has set themselves lofty ambitions, but the UK Government has also promised change but we need to see concerted efforts from UK Government, including on social security, to deliver the better society free from poverty that our children deserve.”

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville welcomed the report and called on her counterparts in Westminster to follow the Scottish Government's lead.

She said: “It is very welcome to see that child poverty rates in Scotland are expected to fall in the years ahead, thanks in part to measures like our Scottish Child Payment, but we are clear that no child should live in poverty in a country as prosperous as Scotland.

“This report should act as a wake-up call for the UK Government and shows them exactly what they need to do to support our efforts to end child poverty – including abolishing the two-child limit and delivering progress toward an Essentials Guarantee, which the Scottish Government has repeatedly called on them to do.

“The draft Scottish Budget for 2025-26 prioritises action to eradicate child poverty, including through investment in breakfast clubs, employability and by developing the systems to mitigate the two-child limit – with estimates that scrapping the cap could lift around 15,000 children out of poverty.

“The report shows that Scotland is bucking the trend on child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK. However, we are in no doubt that there is still much more to do and we will leave no stone unturned across government as we seek to eradicate child poverty.”

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Responding to the figures, Scotland Office minister Kirsty McNeill said: “The UK Government is delivering our plan for change to put more money in people’s pockets.

“The best route out of poverty is secure, well-paid work, which is why we are delivering the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation, with an increase to the minimum wage and starting the process to ban exploitative, zero-hour contracts.

“Our reforms to Universal Credit mean families will be better off by around £420 a year on average and our child poverty task force, set to report in the spring, will seek lasting reductions to child poverty.

“This Government ended austerity, with the largest settlement for the Scottish budget in history – an extra £4.9 billion.”