Are the Tories preparing for MSPs to defect to Reform?

He has only been the party’s boss for a matter of months, but Professor Sir John Curtice estimated Mr Findlay could lose around half of his MSPs in 2026 – winning just 15 seats.

If Prof Curtice’s modelling is correct, the Tories would go from being the second largest party in Holyrood to joint third – alongside the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.

Much of their vote is being drawn away by Reform – a quarter to be exact - while others are looking to the Liberal Democrats as an alternative.

One Tory staffer in Holyrood told The Herald on Sunday: “I didn’t realise how bad the polls were looking for us.”

He proceeded to list off a raft of problem regions for his party.

“In Central Scotland, we’d lost two seats, one of them to Reform,” he said.

“In Glasgow, we would lose one seat to Reform. In the Highlands and Islands, two to Reform. Lothians, two to Reform and one to the Liberal Democrats.

“It goes on and on and on. We are set to lose masses of seats, masses of regional seats.

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“We are looking at losing about half of our regional seats to Reform and I think we really need to understand that there is more to the Scottish Tories than on opposition party that opposes the SNP.

“We really need to figure out how to get Reform off our backs. But I don’t think that a massive lurch to the right is what we need.”

There has already been one fairly major defection this month. Thomas Kerr – Glasgow Shettleston’s first Tory councillor – switched to Reform.

He joins Aberdeenshire pair Mark Findlater and Laurie Carnie as Reform's elected politicians in Scotland.

Nigel Farage is targeting local Tory politicians, writing to all 1,352 across the UK.

But with around 18 months to go before the Scottish Parliament elections, how likely is it that he will turn his attention to sitting Tory MSPs?

As it stands, Michelle Ballantyne, a former Scottish Tory MSP, has been the only Holyrood politician to defect to Reform but she lost her seat months later in 2021.

It is estimated there are around 8,000 Reform members in Scotland, with around 30 local branches.

The populist party’s membership surge is largely driven by disgruntlement towards the UK and the Scottish Governments.

Martyn Greene, the party’s Scotland organiser, said voters were “attracted” to the fresh approach of Reform.

And he said they are coming from all over the political spectrum – and from those with no previous political allegiances.

The party is now on the look out for defections, telling The Herald on Sunday it was “highly likely” Mr Kerr’s defection would not be the last before the Scottish Parliament elections.

“We are genuinely speaking to people from more than one political party,” he said. However, he would not be drawn on whether any Holyrood parliamentarians were in talks to jump ship.

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Despite Mr Greene’s enthusiasm, Edinburgh University elections expert Dr Fraser McMillan said defections are more likely to stay confined to local government.

He said: “It is definitely more likely in council areas but it will only happen in areas where Reform UK expects to do reasonably well.

“Quite a lot of the remaining Scottish Tory MSPs have spent a lot of their life in the party.

“A lot of them have been there for a long, long time and I think they would be part of a degree of institutional loyalty.

“It now looks like Reform will take a further bite out of the Tory vote share. It is primarily a challenge for the Scottish Tories rather than other parties, although Reform is picking up a bit of support from Labour voters as well.”

A breakdown of The Herald’s exclusive poll, conducted by Find Out Now, revealed 12.5%, or one in eight, Labour voters were shifting to Reform.

For the Liberal Democrats, it is just 6%, while the Reform vote coming from the SNP is at 3%.

In his analysis of the poll, Professor Curtice describes Reform’s jump in the poll as “well maintained” in recent months.

“Reform is fracturing the Unionist vote north of the border,” he said.

“It is that fracturing of the Union vote that helps to create the prospect that we end up with another Nationalist majority in Holyrood.”

Glasgow's Reform councillor Thomas Kerr (Image: Newsquest) His analysis predicts the Unionist vote in the regional list would be split across the four pro-Union parties, with Labour winning 15% the Tories and Lib Dems on 13% and Reform on 11%.

At constituency level, it is also split. Labour is estimated to take 19% of that vote, while Reform would be on 13%, the Tories on 12% and the Lib Dems on 10%.

However, in doing so, it will open the doors to the SNP for another term in government, propped up by the Scottish Greens, and potentially Alba.

That “fracturing” Unionist vote is something Russell Findlay is warning Scottish Tory voters of in hope they will not jump ship.

A Tory spokesman told The Herald: “We saw at last year’s general election in Scotland that a vote for Reform only helps the SNP.

“Since becoming leader Russell Findlay has reached out to disillusioned voters, and we continue to work tirelessly for every vote.”

That response would perhaps initially suggest the Scottish Tories were not concerned about the rise of Reform at their expense.

But behind the scenes, staff are concerned their jobs could be at risk in just under a year.

Innes Munro, who works for Highland and Islands MSP Edward Mountain, said he does not believe any Scottish Tory MSPs will defect to Reform before 2026.

He emphasises he is expressing his own opinion, and not that of Mr Mountain. However, he said: “I know most of the MSPs pretty well and I think I just can’t see anyone in the group being as short-sighted as that – because it is a short-sighted thing.”

“I honestly cannot see any Conservative MSP that would defect to Reform. I think they are all decent people and I don’t think they would defect.”

However, he then said it could be a “possibility” that elected politicians choose to stand as a Reform candidate instead of the Tories.

Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay. “I think fair enough if they want to do it around election time and stand on a different mandate – there’s maybe more of a possibility of that. But I don’t expect any of the sitting MSPs to defect to Reform, I think they’re smart enough not to do that,” he added.

“I’m sure it’s a possibility but I would like to think that MSPs in Holyrood would maybe have a bit more respect for the party.

“It’s perhaps more likely that candidates who came very close to gaining a seat, either in Holyrood or council elections, they might look to Reform.”

One thing is for certain though. Mr Munro admits “Reform is a huge threat” to the Scottish Tories.

“I think that Russell is doing a pretty good job but we need to stay on track and keep an eye on the road ahead.”

“I am quite worried about Reform,” Mr Munro added.

“In politics you can lose your job whenever. A week is a long time in politics but I have a lot of friends who work for MSPs and it’s not just about the MSP’s seats. It’s about those who work for them.”

For Mr Munro, though, and perhaps many other voters, the idea of people voting “blindly” for Reform with no clear indication of what their policies are, is of the highest concern.

He said: “Reform is feeding off frustration. The Conservatives have always won by offering solutions. We don’t do stunts.

“Whereas you look at Reform and I can’t really name a serious policy. Zero waiting lists in four years – how is that going to happen? There is no way that can happen.”

But Reform’s Mr Greene said his party does have a plan. It just is not ready for sharing yet.

He said his party wants to “deal” with the crisis-hit NHS, adding: “We have to look at what we can do within the NHS to make it more efficient, to make it better – but free at the point of use.”

And on education, he said his party’s policies are “fairly straightforward”. It would remove the “woke ideology” in Scottish schools, returning to the “basics of education”.

Pressed on his party’s specific policies, for the NHS and schools in particular, Mr Greene said: “It’s not there now. I am not going to pretend I’ve got a full manifesto commitment to give you today, 15 months out from the election. But it is something we will have in our manifesto at the beginning of 2026.”

The Tories, then, are at a great risk of suffering at the hands of Nigel Farage’s Reform party.

In July’s general election, Reform won five seats, receiving 14.3% of the vote share. Those votes, while they did not result in a high return of MPs, wreaked havoc on the Conservatives attempts to hold a Labour majority back.

The Tories got just 23.7% of the vote share, compared to Labour’s 33.7%.

At a Holyrood level, there is a clear risk of this happening again. If the warnings of Scottish Tory insiders are right, Mr Findlay has a tough job on his hands.

His hope lies with convincing voters Reform do not have a concrete plan, or policies to back them up.