A new poll shows Reform UK is set to win double digit seats in Scotland's next parliamentary elections following an international rise in support for right wing populist parties.
Nigel Farage's party will gain 14 seats in Holyrood and will pick up a significant amount of young Scottish voters, if the findings are replicated in next year’s election.
The Survation poll, conducted for public affairs agency Quantum Communications amongst a 1,012 online sample size earlier this month, also shows the SNP remains on track to be the largest party – but with fewer MSPs.
The First Minister has said the SNP’s lead in the poll shows his leadership is connecting with Scots while other political parties blamed his party's record in power for sending voters into "despair".
According to calculations by the Diffley Partnership, this poll would result in 55 seats for the SNP, 19 for Labour, 17 for the Conservatives, 14 for Reform, 13 for the Lib Dems, 10 for the Greens and one for Alba.
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Compared to the last Holyrood election in 2021, this would mean the SNP would lose 9 seats, Labour would lose 3 and the Conservatives would drop 14.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems would gain 9, the Greens would jump up by 2 and Alba would gain one MSP who ran on this party's ticket — their current MSP ran as an SNP candidate.
Scotland's current main three political parties - SNP, Scottish Labour, and the Scottish Conservatives - all face being squeezed by the rise of Reform.
Its strongest support on the regional list vote is among those aged 16 to 24, replicating a trend witnessed with right-wing populist parties across the UK and Europe.
Polling experts have said this survey shows Scottish Labour will need to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform to mount a challenge in the May 2026 contest.
The Survation poll of 1,012 people in Scotland puts the SNP on 34% of the constituency share and 29% on the regional vote. Compared to January, that is down one percentage point and two points respectively.
Scottish Labour is up one point to 23% in the constituency vote and down one point on the list to 20%.
Reform has risen sharply to 17% in the constituency vote share, and 16% on the list, which are the highest figures it has ever recorded in a Scottish poll.
Professor Nicola McEwen, director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Glasgow, said: “The rise of Reform across the UK has been one of the key features of polling in the last year. Until now, Scotland had seemed to buck the trend, but this poll puts Reform UK at its highest share of the vote in Scotland to date.
“The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.
“The party is also polling strongly in party list preferences… in the three regions where it is strongest, Reform UK now has around the same vote share as Labour.
“Although small numbers in the sample point to the need for caution, 16 to 24-year-olds represent Reform’s strongest voter group by age.
Polling expert Mark Diffley said the biggest winners of this poll are Reform UK and the SNP.
The founder of Diffley Partnership, said: “The parties which will feel happiest by this latest poll from Quantum Communications are Reform UK and the SNP.
“Reform has recorded its highest ever showing on a Holyrood poll with almost one in six voters backing the party, meaning it would return an estimated 14 MSPs if this result were replicated at next year’s election, making it the fourth largest party in the parliament.
“SNP vote share has continued to stabilise in the mid-30s, representing a recovery from the party’s showing at the 2024 UK general election – although still a significant fall from the 48% recorded at the last Holyrood election in 2021.
“Nonetheless, if this result were repeated next year, it would be substantially the biggest party again at Holyrood and may have the opportunity to form a pro-independence majority with support from the Scottish Greens and Alba.”
He added: “Labour and the Conservatives will be most disappointed by the poll with both parties losing ground.
“Only six in 10 of those who voted Labour last year intend to do so again, with the party losing support to the SNP and Reform in equal measure. This makes Labour’s task very difficult, but it needs to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform if it is going recover ground and challenge next year.”
First Minister John Swinney told journalists on Wednesday the poll shows "strong support" for his party and if they came out of an election on the basis of that poll they would be "the leading party by an absolute country mile".
The Scottish Conservatives have said the poll shows Reform is "helping the SNP" to win a pro-independence majority and they stressed they will "continue to rebuild trust with disillusioned voters".
Scottish Labour's Jackie Baillie said "voters are close to despair" as a result of the SNP's record on health, education and public services", adding that her party "will work to earn every vote" at the next elections.
The Scottish Lib Dems MSP Willie Rennie said support for their party is growing because "people want to see change", be that through getting GP and dentist appointments or improving Scottish education.
The Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater said their party needed to see as many of their members in parliament "as possible" to ensure household bills were cut and the creation of new green industrial jobs.
Alba has welcomed the polling and said the survey suggesting parliamentary representation for their party is "good news" for the independence movement.
