Prison chiefs fear the return of rioting in Scotland's jails as an unprecedented eight jails are placed on the highest security alert as prisoner numbers are set to soar to a record high next month.
In an exclusive interview with The Herald, Natalie Beal, chair of the Prison Governors Association Scotland, the organisation which represents the governors of all of the country's prisons, said her members were concerned violent disturbances could hit the system in a similar fashion to the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Ms Beal said sustained and acute overcrowding meant there were fewer opportunities for prisoners to take part in rehabilitation, exercise and work programmes, meaning they were locked up in their cells for longer periods, leading to growing frustration and restlessness.
She said governors were worried minor irritations among prisoners could spark violent incidents which could quickly escalate in the system so under pressure and lead to a loss of accommodation because halls are destroyed.
Ms Beal was asked if she was concerned Scotland could see the return of prison riots was the case in Barlinnie, Peterhead and Perth prisons in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
"Of course," she said. "If we think about chronic stress on the system. It is not just the case of high population numbers, but high population numbers over a sustained period.
"There are combined factors. What we are really concerned about is that something really small like 'my chips don't taste as good today' something that seems relatively insignificant in the wider picture of things can and does trigger someone becoming really, really violent.
"Everything always thinks there will be this big situation but actually it can be quite small things. Our worry of course is that there would be some levels of violence and what the impact on staff and prisoners would be.
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"But we also have the concern 'what if an area gets destroyed in that violence where are we going to put those individuals? What is the contingency? We are creaking under the pressure of population growth.
"So yes I am absolutely concerned. Our members, the governors, are all worried that their's is the prison that something could happen in."
"They understand people. They understand what groups of individuals living on top of each other looks like and what those small insignificant things can do to create the pressures. We need something fundamental to shift."
Last year, prison governors pushed for emergency measures to be brought, which last summer saw the release of 300 short term prisoners (those serving up to four years) to ease overcrowding. Legislation was also passed last autumn which saw short term prisoners automatically released after completing 40% of their sentence rather 50%. The measure is referred to by the Scottish Prison System as Short Term Prisoner 40 (STP40).
Writing to Holyrood's justice committee in April last year, Ms Beal noted that seven of the country's prisons were operating at red risk, the highest level of security risk.
But speaking to The Herald, Ms Beal revealed that the number had for the first time in the service's history now risen to eight despite the release of many short term prisoners because others had now come into custody.
She said projections by the Scottish Prison Service was that the population would rise to a up between 8,350 to 8,400 by the end of June and could hit record levels of between 8,500 to 8,600 by end of September.
However, she added separate modelling by justice analysts in the Scottish Government put the figure at up to 8900 for later this year, though she noted this figure did not take into account any releases of short term prisoners under the legislation passed last autumn.
She said that the prison population stood at 8327 and had its second highest recorded figure on February 17 this year when it reached 8375.
To date, the highest ever number recorded was 8420 on March 5, 2012.
However, Ms Beal stressed that since 2012, the prison composition has become more complex and now includes more prisoners who need to be kept apart from others including members of serious organised crime groups and sex offenders.
She explained that these 'complex' factors contributed to the red risk status which means prisons operating at an agreed security level in terms of staffing and prisoner numbers.
"Red risk status means that is the highest level of operational risk a prison can operate at. It's an abnormal risk," she said.
"It's not just about the numbers. It's also about the complexity. The composition of prisons and prisoner mix has changed over the years whether it be offence protection prisoners, for sexual offences or membership of serious organised crime gangs.
"The various different discrete populations mean that lots of prisoners can't be in the same area and that has also put a strain on accommodation. We are on high alert, staff and managers are continuing to feel the strain."
She continued: "Every prison has an agreed operating level of staff. All the prisons [in red risk] are above that agreed level. Prisons are staffed to an agreed operating level. We are operating above that agreed level. The agreed level is where we have agreed it's safe and we have the right number of prison officers".
Ms Beal also went on to say that the more people you have in custody above agreed levels, the more the regime become restricted with the focus being on delivering statutory prisoner requirements and "basic human rights" including an hour of fresh air and time out of cells.
She was asked by The Herald if she was confident prisoners in the red risk status were receiving those basic requirements.
She said: "Not always and we keep a good eye on that. In the main yes but there are sometimes when it's not possible...Effectively what happens is that we close the areas where more rehabilitative work is done to ensure we meet the statutory requirements - and sometimes that is not always possible."
A Scottish Government spokesman said: “Everyone should be able to live and work safely in prisons.
"Any attacks on prisoners and prison staff are completely unacceptable and all incidents involving alleged criminality are reported to Police Scotland. To continue to provide a safe and secure prison estate, we have increased investment in the Scottish Prison Service resource budget by 10% to £481.5 million in 2025/26.”
The Scottish Government was asked about modelling that the prison population could grow to a record high of 8900 this Spring.
A spokesperson said: “The latest prison projections point to a range of possible scenarios, and we know there is a likelihood that the population will increase which is we have taken a number of actions to tackle the prison population.
“This includes changing the automatic release point for most short-term prisoners from 50% to 40% of their sentence, increased investment in the Scottish Prison Service resource budget by 10% to £481.5 million in 2025/26 and we continue to optimise the appropriate use of Home Detention Curfew.
“We want to shift the balance with prison and community justice which is why we are investing an additional £25 million over two years to support a range of community justice services, including diversion from prosecution, alternatives to remand and community sentencing. In addition, we have established an independent Commission to review sentencing and penal policy and identify the most effective ways to address offending behaviour to help reduce crime and lower the number of victims.
“This is not an issue unique to Scotland. Other parts of the UK that show the prison population has been rising steadily. There is no single reason for the increase and there is no single solution to the issue.”
