This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.
Russell Findlay told those at a press conference today that the thought of five more years of an SNP government keeps him awake at night, but really, the stagnancy in the polls his own party faces may be the real reason for his insomnia.
The Scottish Tories are predicted to lose 18 seats with Reform on track to be runners-up to the SNP at the next Holyrood election, according to a new poll out today from Survation by True North.
This would leave the Tories with a dismal 13 seats.
When polling does not go well for a Scottish party, a line often used is “There’s only one poll that matters and that’s the Holyrood election”. This is completely true. I mean, it doesn’t take a genius to work out that of course the actual election is the only poll that truly matters.
But trends do matter.
And so far, Russell Findlay and his party’s trends with the polls do not look good. They look stagnant.
A number of polls have been carried out since the general election last year and when you look at all of these polling results, you will see that the dial hasn’t really shifted for the Scottish Tories.
They have been averaging about 13% of the constituency vote share for the past eight months.
If you were to compare their results to a human pulse, you would think there would be no hope in trying CPR. They are flatlining and have been for some time.
Scott Edgar from Diffley Partnership told The Herald: “Since the general election, polling shows support for the Scottish Conservatives has remained stagnant, with the party struggling to gain traction.
"Meanwhile Reform UK has increasingly gained ground and the Liberal Democrats maintain a steady presence. As the next election nears, the Scottish Conservatives face significant losses unless they can shift this trend.”
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There's also the issue of Russell Findlay not being that well-known a face.
Polling on leadership from YouGov in March found that only 10% would mark Findlay as favourable but the more pressing issue for the political figure is that 60% said they didn't know whether or not they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of him.
This suggests a large majority of people don't have strong thoughts on him either way or more concerningly for him, people just don't know who he is after he took over Tory leadership in September.
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During a press conference in Edinburgh today, where he essentially fired the starting gun for his party's election campaigning, Mr Findlay was adamant that he could shift the dial for his party for the better.
Asked if he has any concerns around a potential lack of profile, Mr Findlay did say due to not being a "career politician", having previously been a journalist, he is not as high profile in politics as other leaders.
He added he would use the year ahead to "tirelessly" work to reach "as many people as possible" to raise his profile and get out the message of "common sense".
Mr Findlay said: "It does take time but in the forthcoming year ahead with the election, my profile will inevitably rise."
And Mr Findlay will have to make sure of it. To grow support for a party almost at the point of death, the Tories need a leader with a strong presence who has a finger on the pulse of public opinion.
