Why FM is suddenly talking about Scottish independence

Six weeks ago John Swinney delivered his programme for government setting out his plans for the year ahead.

Some 12 months out from the next Holyrood elections the First Minister told MSPs his focus would be on "eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency, delivering high quality and sustainable public services".

At no point did he mention independence.

The SNP's founding goal was not noted once in his speech nor in the 46-page accompanying document.

Instead, there were announcements on scrapping peak rail fares, on creating 100,000 more GP appointments and the lifting of the blanket ban on rail passengers drinking alcohol while travelling.

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But what was also telling was that the lack of any talk around independence did not even merit any news coverage.

That's because of the implicit acceptance by the SNP, by opposition parties and by the media that independence was now "off the radar", as Nicola Sturgeon pointed out in January.

Nobody was actually expecting the SNP's fourth First Minister to say anything about independence in his programme for government.

Now there are strong reasons why he didn't mention it when he addressed MSPs on May 6.

First, Mr Swinney's SNP has not got a majority in Holyrood with his minority government requiring the support of opposition parties to get his legislation passed.

Earlier this year the SNP - perhaps wary of giving the Greens too much influence following the collapse of the Bute House Agreement last year -  struck an agreement with the Lib Dems (as well as the Greens) to support the Budget.

But Alex Cole-Hamilton's price for his party's support was that Mr Swinney's government must not spend a "penny" promoting independence nor that the government spend time debating the issue in Holyrood.

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The second reason why Mr Swinney left out independence from his programme for government is likely grounded in what polling suggests are voters' priorities - namely, cutting NHS waiting times, improving living standards and tackling the cost of living through growing the economy and improving education.

YouGov research in March put independence much lower down the list of priorities for Scots with just 14% saying it should be a top priority for the Scottish Government.

However, what may explain Mr Swinney's about turn - giving a big speech today making the case for independence - is a pressing need to motivate SNP supporters.

The same YouGov polling in March found that independence is a high priority for this group of voters, ranking third as their policy priority (behind health and education).

The SNP's defeat in the Hamilton, Larkhall, Stonehouse by-election, losing the seat to Labour, saw the party's support drop there from 46% in the 2021 election to 29% on June 5.

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It was certainly a wake-up call to the party - and of course to Mr Swinney - showing them that the SNP needs to regain the support of a large number of former voters, some of whom may have stayed at home or voted for other parties two weeks ago.

The SNP's hope is of course that ramping up the independence message ahead of the next Holyrood election will persuade disgruntled SNP voters to back them to win again.

The First Minister will be hoping for the same outcome and that another win will secure his own position in the next parliamentary term amid rumblings of discontent in his party.

We'll find out whether the strategy works when Scotland heads to the polls in less than a year.