This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.
Keir Starmer’s conditioned recognition of Palestine has not gone down well on either side.
The Prime Minister said the UK will recognise a Palestinian state in September – unless Israel backs off Gaza.
Starmer’s conditions include a ceasefire from both sides, while Israel must commit to long-term peace that delivers a two-state solution and no annexation in the West Bank.
Conditions on Hamas include immediately releasing Israeli hostages and an acceptance that they will play no part in governing Gaza.
This is progress and a major shift in the UK’s foreign policy. Previously, the UK Government’s stance was that a long-term peace plan had to be in place before recognition could be on the table.
Starmer now says that the plan is to work towards a “two-state solution”, where an independent state of Palestine is established alongside [[Israel]].
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Realistically, this is not a genuine attempt to recognise the state of Palestine.
This, simply, is politics. It is an attempt to appease both sides while attempting to force Israel’s hand to put an end to the suffering in Gaza.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is amongst the highest profile voices arguing that doing so would reward Hamas for the devastating October 7 attacks in 2023.
Hamas are also unlikely to back a deal that diminishes their political power.
This is a conflict that has been raging in the Middle East since the early 20th century. There is, clearly, no easy solution to the Israel and Palestine tensions.
Britain’s imperialist role in Palestine undoubtably influenced the conflict. It had control over the region between 1917 and 1948 before withdrawing and leaving a bitter and lasting war.
The Balfour declaration helped create the Jewish homeland of Israel, but the UK equally promised Palestinians the right to their own land and peace.
So what could be behind Starmer’s change of policy, and why now?
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The internal pressure is growing on Starmer to act on the Gaza crisis. More than 250 MPs – over a third of the House of Commons - have signed a cross-party letter to pressure the Prime Minister into the move.
These conditions are unlikely to be agreed by either the Israeli government or Hamas and any internal win Starmer gets from this move could be short-lived.
By placing conditions on Palestine's recognition, Starmer looks weak.
On Tuesday, a UN-backed organisation warned there was mounting evidence of famine in Gaza.
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The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) said: "Latest data indicates that famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of the Gaza Strip and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City."
That tells us that there are innocent children in Gaza who do not have until September for Starmer to make up his mind.
Starmer is giving decision makers around 60 days to act on his conditions - if they don't, where will we be then?
The recognition of Gaza cannot become a political game and Starmer must be decisive in his action. But for now, he missed the mark.
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