Ministers will have to more than triple affordable home building each year to meet Scotland’s housing needs as the country grapples with a deepening housing emergency, an expert study has shown.
Analysis by academic housing experts stresses that "urgent investment" is need with the Scottish Government already under fire for being behind in building enough homes to build the current target of 110,000 homes promised by 2032.
The expert report, described as "alarming" by housing campaigners has found that the gross affordable housing requirement for Scotland from 2026 to 2031 is 15,693 homes annually - over three times the number that were started in 2024/25.
They say that would necessitate a "significant increase" in the affordable homes delivery target.
In 2024/25 the number of affordable homes approved for taxpayer cash backing dropped to its lowest level for 12 years with under 5000 begun in 2024/25.
It comes as housing secretary Màiri McAllan was today (Tuesday) expected to deliver a long awaited housing emergency action plan.
The analysis, seen by the Herald, by academics in housing economics, planning and urban studies from the University of Sheffield, University of Liverpool and Sheffield Hallam University states that ministers would have to more than double the amount it spends annually to provide enough affordable homes in the housing emergency to meet Scotland's needs as homelessness is expected to rise.
Mairi McAllan was today expected to deliver a long awaited housing emergency action planThey have estimated that the affordable homes budget should be £1.64bn annually, and £8.20bn over the next Scottish Parliament in today’s prices.
The First Minister reversed a near £200m cut to the provision of affordable homes in this year's budget and was investing £768m for 2025/26 which remained £11m less that was allocated in 2021/22.
The Herald's seven-point charter for change to help end Scotland's housing emergency, launched last July, was credited by some for sparking the change of heart. It included a call to cut the number of children living in temporary accommodation and a significant increase in the building of affordable homes.
The analysis says that the drivers of need include increased homelessness, higher numbers of households inadequately housed in private homes, recent spikes in rents, persistent affordability pressure and a decline in the number of properties becoming vacant within the housing stock.
"The increased level of affordable housing need is reflective of several acute challenges converging within the Scottish housing system," the authors said. "But these challenges have also emerged at a time when new housing supply - both private and social - is falling. A consensus has formed that the Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP) needs urgent investment."
They said that the past five years could be summarised as a period of "significant ambition" in Scottish housing policy but with "gaps in implementation and acute challenges emerging in the past few years".
They say a recent increase in the affordable homes budget was a "notable achievement" but it also "highlighted the need for resilience in the housing system" and that there was "increasingly a recognition" that the Scottish Government's Housing to 2040 strategy is in "significant difficulty".
Some 13 of Scotland’s thirty-two local authorities, and the Scottish Parliament, have declared a housing emergency.
Housing campaigners Living Rent said the study was "alarming evidence of a government that has been all talk and no action and has allowed the housing emergency to spiral completely out of control".
They said: "This emergency could have been prevented. This government, and those which preceded it, has seen the housing emergency get worse each and every year. But instead of robust and bold intervention, all they have done is tinker around the edges and commit to action without any of the investment needed to make it happen."
And the study, commissioned by Shelter Scotland, Chartered Institute of Housing Scotland and the Scottish Federation Of Housing Associations warns that if current trends in homelessness continue they expect a 3.7% rise in homelessness cases from when they last carried out analysis five years ago.
While the Scottish Government pledged to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, which is a rate of around 11,000 a year - analysis shows that the number approved for taxpayer cash backing has dropped to its lowest level for 12 years with just 4755 new homes begun in 2024/25 - despite ministers declaring a housing emergency in mid-May last year.
Having fallen behind, to fulfil on its promise by 2032, the Scottish Government, would have to deliver at a rate of 1005-a-month from now on, but that is two-and-a-half times the 396 affordable homes-a-month that were approved for public funding in 2024/25.
Ruth Gilbert, national campaign chair of Living rent added: "It is a disgrace that over a year on trom declaring a housing emergency the number of affordable homes built with taxpayer money has dropped to the lowest level since 2013.
"Building more genuinely affordable homes is a vital step in alleviating Scotland’s poverty and ensuring people have a better quality of life. But let’s be clear, for this housing stock to have a meaningful impact on poverty and affordability these need to be homes for social rent, not more unaffordable mid-market rent."
Callum Chomczuk, national director of CIH Scotland, which jointly commissioned the study with Shelter Scotland and the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations said a "commitment" to a new target will "require a step change in how we deliver and fund social housing in Scotland".
The SFHA said: "The cost of inaction means more homelessness, more children growing up in temporary accommodation and more dreams shattered by a housing system which grows ever more unaffordable.”
Shelter Scotland director, Alison Watson added: "The only option is to invest in and deliver more social homes. Scotland cannot afford to lose another decade of housing."
Scottish Conservative shadow housing secretary Meghan Gallacher said the study "highlights the impact of years of SNP failure in housing policy on the people of Scotland".
She said:“The crisis is only going to deepen unless the SNP dramatically up their game on housebuilding and drop policies that actively put off developers and landlords from increasing the rental stock available.”
Commenting ahead of a statement due to be delivered today, Ms McAllan said her "driving mission" is to ensure no children have to live in unsuitable accommodation or need to spend long periods of time in temporary accommodation."
She said her plan would provide "direct and immediate action" to tackle the housing emergency and provided "strong support" for vulnerable communities and "significant action to create the optimum conditions for confidence and growth in our housing sector"
She added: "Despite the challenges of Brexit, austerity and the cost of living, we already have a strong record in affordable housing, having supported the delivery of 139,000 affordable homes since 2007 – 47% more per head than England, and 73% more than in Wales. Since we declared a housing emergency, we have taken 2,700 children out of temporary accommodation and into a permanent home, up to December 2024. Figures out today also show we have brought a record number of empty homes back into use this year.
“However, we must go further and faster. "
