Scotland would be a first Russian target, experts warn

“RAF Lossiemouth hosts all of our Poseidon P-8 maritime patrol aircraft – effectively a lot of Nato’s capability to track Russian submarines in the North Sea and the North Atlantic comes from Lossiemouth,” he said.

“Lossiemouth is absolutely a target of the Russians, whether that is through a strike, which is more difficult, or more likely, a direct attack from the land.”

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He added: “If it is Kremlin deliberate policy to go attack Nato, the Kremlin will want to do it when it is to their advantage so they will strike first.

“And if they strike first, Faslane and Lossiemouth at a minimum would be their first targets, over London.

“It would be very difficult to strike London because the missile trajectory would have to go across defence assets in Europe, which they cannot.

“But where can they fire from? The North Sea and North Atlantic. So at the point where Finland is attacked, Scotland would demonstrably feel the effects of that through direct action — whether that is from a Russian submarine striking from the North Sea, which is a possibility, or a Russian armed attack on RAF Lossiemouth.”

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The warning comes just days after Estonia’s foreign ministry said three Russian jets entered its airspace without permission on Friday and remained there for 12 minutes.

Yesterday, the Ministry of Defence confirmed the RAF took part in its first Nato policing operation over Poland, after Russian drones violated the country’s airspace. Fighter jets, alongside a Voyager refuelling aircraft, patrolled close to Belarusian and Russian borders.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country was now closer to “open conflict” than at any time since the Second World War. Last week also saw incursions by Moscow into Romania.

Graeme Downie, Labour MP for Dunfermline and Dollar, said the danger was not confined to eastern Europe. Scotland, he said, is already experiencing a “grey conflict” below the threshold of open war, involving espionage, sabotage and cyberattacks.

“Look at a map of Europe and the North Atlantic, and Scotland’s importance to the UK’s security becomes obvious,” he said.

“Our coastline and geography place us directly on the front line of Europe’s defence against Russia. The High North and the Greenland–Iceland–UK gap form a critical sea corridor through which the Russian Northern Fleet, spy ships and submarines can move from their Arctic bases into the North Sea and the North Atlantic.”

Mr Downie, whose constituency takes in Rosyth Dockyard, warned that Russian naval forces threaten not just through cruise missiles and submarines but by endangering the undersea cables that carry the internet, banking, trade and energy markets. “This is not a hypothetical danger; it is a clear and present risk to our security and prosperity,” he said.

He pointed to a surge in activity around Scotland: “The RAF’s fleet of P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft at Lossiemouth has increased to an average of 17 operational missions per month. These aircraft track Russian submarines, gather intelligence and co-ordinate with Nato allies to deter incursions.”

The response, he said, must be to accelerate investment and deepen ties with northern European allies: “In the face of this challenge we cannot afford complacency. We must not only increase defence spending but accelerate how quickly we invest it, ensuring that resources translate rapidly into capabilities.”

The warnings come as The Herald launches Scotland’s Defence Future, a four-day series exploring the UK Government’s pledge to spend 5% of GDP on security by 2035 — the biggest shift in defence spending for a generation.

Writing in today's paper, former Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy warns Britain must prepare for “a prolonged era of competition with an authoritarian alliance” of Russia, China and their allies.

He describes the present moment as “the most uncertain of times” and says the international rules-based order is “in terminal jeopardy — unless we act.”

Mr Murphy, whose advisory and communications firm Arden works with clients in defence, argues deterrence must be credible. “We and our allies now have to be strong enough to prevent a war; and should that deterrence fail then we must also be strong enough to win a war.”

But he also cautions against relying on hard power alone. Renewed military strength, he says, must be matched by “patient diplomacy — the unseen work of building alliances and projecting resolve.” That, he argues, requires “a fundamental recalibration of the British state"

"Public spending will be reshaped with a renewed focus on national security. It will be a whole of society effort necessitating resilience across many fronts including economic growth, industrial strategy, sub-sea cables, supply chains, infrastructure protection, food security, energy independence and much more."

Scotland’s defence sector is already expanding. According to ADS, the aerospace, defence, security and space industries added £3.7 billion to the economy in 2024, up 55% since 2020. Turnover has reached £9 billion, with 36,900 people directly employed, including 2,000 apprentices. Productivity is nearly half again higher than the UK average.

The strategic risk has also forced a rethink at Holyrood. Earlier this month, First Minister John Swinney announced the Scottish Government would end its long-standing ban on awarding public money to companies involved in the manufacture of munitions.

He said the change reflected the need to “recognise the reality of the importance of defence” in light of the war in Ukraine. He insisted no firm supplying Israel would receive funding while there was “plausible evidence of genocide being committed”.

The U-turn followed accusations of “student union politics” when Scottish Enterprise refused to provide £2.5 million towards a submarine project in Clydebank.

Meanwhile, experts warn the UK military as a whole may be too small to cope with the scale of the threat.

Professor Peter Jackson, Chair in Global Security at Glasgow University, said the army’s numbers are now at their lowest since the Napoleonic wars. Cutbacks have left the UK struggling to meet its target of 73,000 soldiers, with just 72,510 currently serving, down from nearly 110,000 in 2010.

“Over the past decade, the UK’s security armature, and especially its army, has been run down,” he said.

“Although there is a lot of emphasis on high-tech electronic warfare, drones especially, numbers still matter.

"Ukraine is in trouble because it is lacking in numbers. Russia has greater demographic resources on which to draw and the UK army is very small. If the UK envisages contributing in an important way to continental security, it is going to have to scale up the size of the army.”

The rise in defence spending will leave the Chancellor facing difficult political choices over how to balance the books.

In a new analysis published today, KPMG said that with growth subdued it was likely Rachel Reeves would consider a “gradual ratcheting up of tax revenues over the next decade.”