The SNP crushed the rebels – now comes the hard part

John Swinney crushed the rebels and united the party – but what happens now? <i>(Image: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)</i>
John Swinney crushed the rebels and united the party – but what happens now? (Image: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)
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In the end, it wasn’t even close. What was described to me as the “howl of frustration” amendment to John Swinney's independence motion wasn’t just defeated, it was beaten, crushed, and overwhelmingly rejected by the party faithful.

There was little doubt that the First Minister and Keith Brown would win, but the scale of the victory shows the party, bar a handful of rebels — who insist they're not rebels — is united behind the leadership.

The motion put forward by the SNP leader argues that next year’s Holyrood election should be fought on a “clear platform of national independence” and that winning a majority — at least 65 seats — would be the “only uncontested way to deliver a new vote on Scotland’s future”.

But the question that should be keeping the First Minister awake at night, is what now?

What happens if the SNP fails to win a majority? If he doesn’t get 65 seats?

Back in August, Professor Sir John Curtice told my colleague Hannah Brown at our Unspun Live at the Fringe event that it was "most extremely unlikely" the SNP would win a majority at the next Holyrood election.

Sure, things have moved and it's only fair to note that the recent polls have suggested Swinney hasn’t just stemmed the bleeding after the SNP’s terrible 2024, but are now starting to recover.

Some in the party believe the fragmented nature of politics in 2026 — the rise of Reform, Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party — should make it technically more easy to get the 65 seats.

But even so, a majority is a big ask.

And then there's the question about John Swinney's time at the top.

The First Minister has explicitly tied his leadership to winning independence.

"I did not take on the leadership of this party to make a difference at the margins or to make a bit of progress towards independence or even pave the way for the next generation to win it,” Mr Swinney said.

“No, I took the leadership to deliver independence and that’s exactly what I’m going to do for Scotland,” he said.

I asked Keith Brown if that meant Swinney would stand down if he didn’t manage to win 65 seats.

“I don't think we're not going to get the 65 seats," he said, "but you're right, he's staked his premiership on the idea of winning independence. I'm not denying that, but he's doing it from a position of strength.”

Which, bizarrely, suggests the SNP could win the next election and John Swinney might have to stand down.

However, the big question is the one asked by perennial rebel, Graeme McCormick during the debate. In his final speech, he asked delegates what they’ll do if the SNP win a majority and demand a referendum and No 10 say no.

If the SNP do win a majority then Sir Keir Starmer will almost certainty be out, but will whoever comes next — Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner — agree to a referendum? It seems unlikely.

The leadership will need to find a convincing answer.

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