In recent years the rise of the right across the world — or the western world at least — has felt somewhat inevitable.
Whether it's Donald Trump across the pond, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, or the surge in the polls of Nigel Farage and Reform the collapse of the liberal order has seemed only to benefit one side.
This week though two election results, while featuring very different winners in very different contexts, suggested that shift may not be so inevitable.
On Thursday Labour suffered its first parliamentary defeat in Caerphilly, Wales in a century but it wasn't Reform who benefited - Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle romped home with almost half of the vote, handily beating Reform easily into second place as Labour and the Conservatives managed 13% between them.
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While Plaid would be no-one's idea of a socialist party, they're firmly to the left of Keir Stamer's government and handily defeated Reform who focused pretty much all of their campaign on immigration.
Then, on Friday, the Irish presidential election produced a resounding win for Catherine Connolly, a left-wing republican endorsed by Kneecap who ran on free public transport; housing as a human right; support for the Irish language and a referendum on unification; and declared "I will stand in solidarity with the Palestinian people as long as I have breath in my body".
The role of Irish president is largely ceremonial, with the head of state in place to uphold the constitution while parliament does the actual passing of laws — but how did someone most Irish people had never heard of until a few months ago come to be in this position? And what could it mean for the rest of Europe?
One of 14 children, Connolly's father was a carpenter and shipbuilder — he crafted the traditional gleoiteog — in Galway and her mother died when she was just nine years old.
The family lived in Shantalla, the city's first corporation housing scheme, with Connolly leading a successful campaign to have tennis courts built there in the 1970s.
Childhood neighbour John McDonagh told the Irish Times: "That was a huge achievement in a very working-class neighbourhood at the time. She always had the interests of the people and the community at heart."
Having earned degrees in both clinical psychology and law — she became a barrister in 1991 —Connolly joined the Labour Party after its disastrous defeat in the 1997 election and was elected to Galway City Council two years later.
Connolly was re-elected two years later but her time with Labour would come to a bitter end ahead of the 2007 election, for both inter-party and political reasons.
She had intended to run for the Seanad in that plebiscite but one-time ally Michael D Higgins — the current President of Ireland — wasn't keen on having a second Labour candidate on the ballot, even as a running mate, and her candidacy was blocked.
Connolly ultimately stood as an independent but received just over 2,000 first preference votes.
It would be inaccurate to say, however, that her departure was purely due to thwarted political ambitions.
Connolly was an opponent of of the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon, a European Union amendment which committed the bloc to "a highly competitive social market economy" and, at least in the view of many opponents, undermined the rights of workers.
Though she describes herself as a "committed European", she told the Irish Independent: "The blatant neoliberal agenda, plus the building up of the arms industry was frightening to me."
Connolly would ultimately be elected to the Dáil in 2016, winning re-election twice with an increased vote share on each occasion.
Irish Presidents are only eligible to serve a maximum of two seven-year terms, so a new figure was always coming in 2025, even if MMA fighter Conor McGregor was never likely to have the nominations needed for his supposed bid.
Connolly announced her bid on July 11, securing the backing of the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, 100% redress, and a number of independent candidates. She would eventually also receive the support of the Labour Party and Sinn Féin; as well as both the both the Workers' Party and the Communist Party of Ireland though neither of those have any elected representatives to provide nominations.
Though helped by a financial scandal which sunk Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin — it emerged the former landlord had failed to return a rent overpayment of €3,300 (£2,865) — and left her head to head with Heather Humphreys of Fianna Fáil, it was a remarkable campaign from Connolly.
Clever messaging on social media helped — she went viral doing keepy-ups on TikTok — but her unrepentant left-wing messaging was perhaps more important in convincing 83% of 18-34-year-olds to support her, according to a pre-election poll.
The opposition pointed to comments she'd made in the Dáil stating that she was "ashamed to be European" under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen as evidence of alleged Euroscepticism and an inability to carry out the diplomatic side of the the role she was gunning for.
"I said it with good reason," Connolly replied, before pointing out that she had previously met with Von der Leyen and spoken to her in German.
She has said, repeatedly and without equivocation, that Russia illegally invaded Ukraine but has also been critical of NATO and warned "the military industrial complex is not the way to bring peace" in response to re-armament drives across Europe, which she compared to the 1930s.
Then, of course, there has been her staunch support for Palestine.
In a BBC interview last month Connolly was asked about the insistence by Sir Keir Starmer and others that Hamas should have no part in the future governance of Gaza, and in reply called the group "part of the fabric of the Palestinian people" and pointed out "I come from Ireland, a history of colonisation, and I would be very wary of telling a sovereign people how to run their country".
Many spotted a potentially campaign-ending scandal but there was no grovelling apology.
Instead Connolly pointed out that she has condemned Hamas "over and over, I have never been equivocal on it" but that, given they have governed Gaza since 2006, they are unquestionably a part of civil society in the occupied territory and "history didn't start on October 7".
She concluded: "The Palestinians must decide in a democratic way who they want to lead their country."
As for other potential culture war issues she's made clear she's in favour of the Gender Recognition Act, supports the Irish traveller community and opposes removing the 'Triple Lock' which requires that deployments of Irish troops for peacekeeping missions have Government approval, the support of the Dáil and are mandated by the United Nations.
Irish unity, meanwhile, is a "foregone conclusion" and both Dublin and Westminster should agree a date for a border poll.
Peacenik she may be, but Connolly refused to quail in her campaign and while her politics could not be further from Trump or Farage there's perhaps something to be learned by other left-wing movements about the importance of not ceding the narrative at the first whiff of controversy.
Is her election an Irish flash in the pan, or indicative of something more broad? Clearly it's too early to say but there are signs that the rise of the right may be curbed by the left, squeezing out the traditional centre.
The latest Westminster polling has Reform way out in front, sure, but it also has Zack Polanski's Green Party tied with Labour; while in France the most likely challenger to Rassemblement National appears to be not Emmanuel Macron's protégé Gabriel Attal but Jean-Luc Mélenchon supported by some coalition of the Socialist Party, Green Party, Communist Party and Workers' Struggle. In Italy last month a general strike for Palestine brought hundreds of thousands to the streets.
So far there is no indication that Scotland is ready to follow suit, with the centre-left SNP comfortably in the lead in most polls.
New Scottish Greens co-leader Ross Greer is certainly more of the unapologetic type, however, while Friday saw the first defections to Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana's new party ahead of an event in Glasgow.
Connolly's new role may be largely ceremonial, but it could yet be indicative of something very real.
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