Will Reform hold on? Here's where it might struggle

Next May’s devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, and local elections in England, will be a crucial electoral test for Reform UK. Much recent commentary focuses on whether Reform UK has a "ceiling" of support in Scotland. But a question that's received less attention is how successful the party is likely to be in holding onto the supporters it has recently attracted. When push comes to shove, will Scottish voters really cast their votes for Reform in such numbers next May?

Ipsos’ latest Scottish Political Monitor poll finds that Reform UK has been gaining yet more ground in Scotland. Although the SNP is still well out in front in Holyrood voting intentions, on 35% of the constituency vote, Reform UK is on 18% – a rise of four points since June. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour is languishing on 16%, down seven points since June. The SNP also looks likely at this stage to top the vote share on the regional list vote – 28% say they plan to vote SNP with their list vote.

However, Reform is polling close to Labour and the Scottish Greens – 17% of likely voters now say they would cast their list vote for Reform UK, compared with 18% for Scottish Labour and 17% for the Scottish Greens. If these vote shares were replicated at the ballot box next May, there could be as many as 17 Reform MSPs at Holyrood. The surge in Reform UK support over the past year in Scotland has come largely from disaffected Labour and Conservative voters. Alarmingly for Labour, just 38% of Scots who voted Labour at the 2024 General Election say they would do so again if a General Election were called now. Twenty-two per cent of 2024 Labour voters would vote for Reform UK instead. An identical proportion of 2024 Conservative voters – 22% – also now say they would vote for Reform UK.

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One clear advantage for Reform UK is the high approval ratings that Nigel Farage enjoys among Scots who currently intend to vote for the party. His standing among Reform supporters is much higher than that of other Scottish party leaders among their parties’ supporters. Almost nine in 10 Reform supporters (89%) are satisfied with Farage’s performance as party leader, compared with 75% of SNP supporters who are satisfied with John Swinney and 65% of Labour supporters who are satisfied with Anas Sarwar. Meanwhile, just 43% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Russell Findlay’s performance as leader, against 31% who are dissatisfied. Given that 29% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Nigel Farage’s performance, there may be scope for Reform UK to win over yet more support from Scottish Conservative voters – heralding further electoral woes for the Conservatives in Scotland.

Reform UK has been attracting a distinct pro-Brexit, anti-elite supporter base in Scotland, proving successful among working-class men in particular. Immigration is by far the top issue for Reform UK supporters, with 83% saying this issue will be very important to their decision about which party to vote for at the next Scottish Parliament election. While immigration is also the third most important issue for Conservative voters, it does not feature in the top 10 issues for SNP or Labour supporters – underlining how different the concerns of these parties’ voters are.

This links to a second key advantage for Reform UK, which is that its current supporters have high trust in the party to handle the issue that matters most to them. An overwhelming 94% of current Reform supporters say they trust the party most to take the right stance on immigration overall. In contrast, trust is more fragile among Conservative and Labour supporters in their party’s ability to handle the issue that matters most to them, namely the NHS. 57% of Conservative and 63% of Labour supporters respectively say they trust their party most to manage the NHS in Scotland.

On the evidence of this poll, then, the outlook is favourable for Reform UK’s ability to retain the Scottish supporters it has recently attracted. That said, there are also three areas where Reform UK looks more vulnerable to challenge from other parties.

The first is public services. Less than half of Reform UK supporters (44%) trust it most to manage the NHS in Scotland, and just 7% of the Scottish public overall trust Reform UK most on this issue. In contrast, 77% of the SNP’s supporters trust the SNP most to manage the NHS, as do 28% of the Scottish public overall.

Just 43% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Russell Findlay’s performance as leader, against 31% who are dissatisfied (Image: PA)

A potential advantage for Reform UK is that it has no delivery record to defend, unlike the SNP, which will have been in government for 19 years next May. Whether Reform can put forward a credible policy platform on the NHS and public services ahead of the election remains to be seen, however. This may not matter to some voters, for whom the party’s overall vision and focus on key concerns such as immigration may be more important than its policies. However, a lack of credibility in this area could lose the party support from voters concerned about both public services and immigration, potentially capping future gains.

The economy is another area where there is potential for other parties – particularly the Scottish Conservatives – to outflank Reform UK. Trust is relatively low among Reform UK supporters in the party’s ability to manage Scotland’s economy, with 42% saying they trust Reform UK most to do this. In contrast, trust in the Scottish Conservatives to manage the economy is very high among their own supporters (83%). However, high-profile defections from the Conservatives to Reform UK – such as Lord Offord’s announcement earlier this month that he will campaign as a candidate for Reform at the next election – may enable Reform UK to hold their own on this issue by signalling to current Conservative supporters that the party has expertise on business and the economy.

Finally, a potential pitfall for Reform UK is the level of scrutiny of the party’s key figures and candidates in the run-up to the elections. Recent allegations of racist behaviour by Nigel Farage during his schooldays may still prove damaging. If controversies about reports of offensive or racist comments emerge in relation to Scottish party candidates or activists ahead of the Holyrood elections – as they did ahead of the UK General Election, resulting in three candidates standing down – these could also deter voters.

Emily Gray is Managing Director, Ipsos Scotland