What's really going on with Scottish teacher recruitment?

The most recent commitment was to ensure that teacher numbers returned to the levels seen in 2023, which would still have been more than 1000 fewer than the number the SNP inherited. Before that, the party had promised to increase teacher numbers by 3,500 over the course of the current parliament.

Data released at the end of 2025 confirmed that the government has categorically failed to deliver on these pledges.

That is bad enough, but official figures also highlight a massive and growing problem with job security for Scotland’s newly-qualified teachers.

So, what’s really going on?

What do the official figures say about teachers’ job prospects?

In Scotland, new teachers are guaranteed a job in their first year out of university, known broadly as the probation period. This is technically a placement offered as part of the teacher induction scheme that individuals must successfully complete in order to become fully qualified.

The Scottish Government’s annual teacher census records the employment status of ‘post-induction scheme teachers’, revealing whether or not they have secured a job in their first year fully-qualified.

This data shows that in 2024/25, fewer than one in four newly qualified teachers had secured full-time, permanent employment, while around a third had managed to find a full-time position on a temporary basis. Around one in ten were working on a part-time basis, with almost all of these employed on temporary contracts.

Overall, that means that about three out of every ten newly qualified teachers had not found a job in Scottish public schools: they could be scraping together a few hours on supply while working elsewhere, teaching in private schools, teaching abroad, or find themselves out of work entirely.

The percentage securing full-time, permanent work has now reached its lowest level since the period of 2016 to 2018, when the figure was approaching 60 percent.

Further breakdowns of the government data also reveal that the situation is very different for primary school teachers compared to those qualified to teach in secondary schools.

Last year, 42 percent of newly qualified secondary school teachers secured a full-time, permanent contract at a public school in Scotland. Back in 2018/19, that figure stood at 58 percent.

However, the decline at primary school level has been so extreme that it is scarcely believable.

In 2018/19, 41 percent of newly qualified primary teachers secured full-time, permanent work; by 2024/25, this was true for just 11 percent of the group. This means that fewer than 150 newly qualified primary school teachers found full time, permanent work in 2024/25.

Why does teacher job security matter?

As teaching unions have regularly pointed out, a lack of secure work for new teachers – almost all of whom have been trained at public expense – leads to many of them seeking work in other countries or simply leaving the profession entirely.

Traditionally, job security has been a key element of attracting people to become teachers, especially as many of the people suitable for the job could earn more money by pursuing different career paths. With the chances of securing a full-time, permanent job dwindling each year, it is likely to become more and more difficult to attract the ‘best and brightest’ into teaching, because they are being offered so much more security elsewhere.

The lack of permanent jobs also has an impact on the quality of teaching that takes place in schools. During their early-career stage, teachers effectiveness develops significantly, with past research showing that the benefits of having an experienced teacher are measurable and long-lasting for young people. A key part of this process is the long-term support of colleagues but, where newly qualified teachers do not enjoy job security, and may be forced to jump between various temporary positions, it becomes much more difficult to develop the knowledge and skills that make such a big difference in the classroom.

This problem has an obvious impact on pupils, who are also negatively affected by the lack of stability that they experience when teachers are employed on short-term, temporary contracts, making it incredibly difficult for young people to build relationships with some of the most important adults in their lives.

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What does the Scottish Government say?

Education secretary Jenny Gilruth has responded to criticism of the current situation by pointing out that teachers cost more to employ than was the case a few years ago, following the successful conclusion of pay negotiations with teaching unions.

This is true, but it was also inevitable. Salary costs go up each year, and some form of agreement was always going to have to be secured with the teaching profession, so any suggestion that this was some sort of entirely unforeseen expense is not at all persuasive.

Ms Gilruth has also suggested that teachers might need to be more willing to move around the country to find work, and it is true that some councils are still struggling to fill posts, but the available data does not suggest that more movement from teachers would make a huge different to the figures recorded in the government’s own spreadsheets.

What’s more, there are lots of reasons why people might not be able to uproot themselves and move across the country, and the costs of doing so can be prohibitive. The government actually recognises that fact in terms of teachers completing their probation years, because at this stage additional payments are offered to those willing to work anywhere, including areas far from the central belt and other population centres. Comparable payments are not offered to newly qualified teachers.

Ultimately, the problem is that the government has allowed a situation to develop whereby Scotland has an oversupply of teachers, especially those qualified to work in primary schools.

In fact, the Scottish Government’s official workforce planning paper from 2025 clearly states: “Since 2019/20, we estimate that an excess of approximately 950 primary teachers have been trained.”

The modelling notes that although pupil numbers started falling in 2017, the number of new teachers coming through the system each year was maintained as part of the SNP’s promise to increase teacher numbers by 3,500 – a promise that it has not kept.

Had the government met its commitment to raise teacher numbers then the percentage of new teachers finding work would be higher, and perhaps dramatically so.

But the commitment was not met, and one of the key consequences of that failure is now plain to see, especially for those trying to start their teaching career.