Permeability is blurring party lines before Holyrood vote

Permeability’s a good word. It’s about the ability of a substance to allow gases or liquids to go through it.

It’s the metaphor Dr David Moon, Senior lecturer in politics at the University of Bath’s Department of Politics, Languages and International Studies, reached for on Monday after former Tory Home Secretary Suella Braverman defected to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

“This defection highlights the growing permeability between the Conservatives and Reform UK,” he said.

“That blurring is itself a consequence of the Conservatives’ own shift to the right and leaves an increasingly stark question about what really differentiates a Kemi Badenoch-led Conservative Government from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.”

That is, if the line between the Tories and Reform UK is so thin that it’s practically invisible, it’s becoming harder to see what separates the two parties.

It’s not just about policies, but also the personalities.

As Theo Bertram, the director of the Social Market Foundation, and a former No 10 adviser during the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown years, pointed out on X, “there are now more members of Liz Truss’ Cabinet in Nigel Farage’s team than in Kemi Badenoch’s team”.

There are just 100 days until the Holyrood election, and without doubt that permeability is going to cause some grief for Russell Findlay.

But there are questions of permeability too for Anas Sarwar. He would like Scottish Labour and UK Labour to be a bit more distinct.

Scottish Labour, who won 35% of the vote in Scotland in 2024, are now at 16% in the constituency and 18% on the list, according to the Survation poll commissioned by True North and published a few weeks back.

Sarwar’s personal ratings aren’t that bad, but voters do not like Keir Starmer.

A recent focus group of voters in Falkirk, conducted by the polling organisation More in Common for the Holyrood Sources podcast, brought together voters who backed Labour at the 2024 general election but are now split between Labour, the SNP and Reform UK.

Sir Keir did not come out of it well, with participants describing the Prime Minister as “spineless”, out of touch and unable to control his party.

One said: “I don't think he has much of a backbone. I think he would like to see change, but I don't think he offers any sort of solution and how he can change what he's willing to do to make a change.”

Another said Sir Keir was “not like a normal person either”.

“He doesn't understand things like the cost of living because he obviously comes from money. He doesn't get it. It's not an issue to him,” she said.

“He's probably never ever had his card declined or do you know anything like that at the supermarket?”

“I don't know if he's fit for the purpose,” said another.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was personally viewed as decent and genuine and quite likeable, but many said their disillusionment with Labour at Westminster meant they were unlikely to back him.

Luke Tryl from More in Common described Sarwar as “one of the most unlucky people in political history”.

“It's not that Scottish Labour have particularly done, certainly for this group, anything, anything wrong, but they are making that decision based on what's been happening in Westminster.”

What about the other parties?

In 2021, Nicola Sturgeon won 62 constituency seats on 48% of the vote. This month's Survation poll suggests that in 2026 John Swinney will win 61 with 34%.

That last Survation poll had the Liberal Democrats taking 11 and the Greens winning nine. Both would want to do better, but would be content.

Alba, the party set up by Alex Salmond, looks unlikely to get close to the 1.7% of votes they took at the 2021 election.

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Jeremy Corbyn’s Scottish wing of Your Party is having its founding conference in Dundee on February 7 and 8, and while there was some interest in standing, they’re going to have their work cut out to make much of a dent.

Scotland is heading into an election with fewer edges.

The danger with a campaign defined by permeability is that if voters can’t tell the difference, they might not bother turning up.