A new poll shows Reform UK is projected to become the second-largest party as Labour slips into third for the Holyrood 2026 election.
This contrasts with a recent Ipsos MORI survey for STV which showed that Labour had comfortably overtaken Reform in second place.
Both polls show a firm lead for the SNP.
The most recent survey, conducted by Survation for Diffley Partnership, shows the SNP comfortably ahead on both the constituency and regional list ballots.
The poll also shows that the Scottish Government's record will play a key factor in shaping the election with more than half of respondents listing this as a top priority ahead of thoughts on the UK Government's performance.
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Using the figures from this single poll, the projected distribution of seats in the Scottish Parliament would be SNP with 64 seats - one short of a majority. The poll shows Reform UK on 19 seats - just in front of Scottish Labour with a projected 17 seats.
The Conservatives are projected to take 13 seats, while the Greens are expected to get 9 seats and Liberal Democrats are expected to take 7 seats.
According to the poll of more than 1,000 Scottish adults, the SNP leads the constituency ballot on 37%, followed by Labour on 18% and Reform UK on 17%.
The Conservatives are in fourth place on 12%, while the Liberal Democrats record 9% and the Scottish Greens 6%.
On the regional list vote, the SNP again leads with 33%, while Labour and Reform UK are tied on 17%.
The Conservatives stand at 13%, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens on 9% each. Support for other parties such as Alba remains very low at 1–2%.
The poll also assessed public views of party leaders.
First Minister John Swinney records 41% favourable and 42% unfavourable, producing a near-neutral net score.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer receives 24% favourable and 65% unfavourable, leaving him with a net rating of –41 among Scottish voters.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar posts 27% favourable and 46% unfavourable, while Malcolm Offord, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, remains relatively unknown, with 61% saying they do not know enough about him to form a view.
Public assessments of the two governments show more negative views overall, though the Scottish Government fares better than the UK administration.
The UK Government records 25% approval and 65% disapproval, while the Scottish Government stands at 40% approval and 47% disapproval.
When asked which government’s record will matter most in shaping their vote at the 2026 Holyrood election, 54% say the Scottish Government, compared with 21% who say the UK Government, while 24% say they are unsure.
Mark Diffley, Director at Diffley Partnership said: “Our new poll reinforces that the SNP continues to lead its rivals, but it also highlights an electorate weighing up competing priorities and mixed views on government performance.
"What stands out is that voters see the Scottish Government’s record as the key factor shaping their vote for Holyrood. As parties enter the crucial pre-election period, it is clear that perceived competence at Holyrood will be central to how voters make up their minds.”
The poll surveyed 1,017 adults aged 16 and over in Scotland between 20 and 25 February 2026 using Survation’s online panel.
Results were weighted by demographics and past vote, with headline figures based on respondents likely to vote.
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