Inside John Curtice's election briefing - insights and forecasts

And with the Holyrood election now just over seven weeks away on May 7, the country's leading pollster Professor John Curtice was a star speaker addressing the audience just ahead of housing secretary Mairi McAllan's keynote speech.

The 400 or so delegates from across Scotland gathered in the large lecture theatre were keen to hear what insights Professor Curtice had into the likely outcome.

Read More:

• Poll: Reform rise slows as Scots plan to vote tactically
• Police Scotland chief Jo Farrell given hefty pay rise - why?
• 'Rebuild, restore' – but recent history doesn't bode well
• Can the Scottish Greens build on Greens bounce in England?

His headline conclusions were that based on the average results of recent polling including by Ipsos Mori, Find Out Now, and More in Common the SNP was projected to win 60 seats, with Reform becoming the main opposition party with 18 seats.

The Conservatives were put on 15 seats, Labour 14, Green 12 and Lib Dem 10, according to the chart Professor Curtice presented to the conference's delegates.

But while he forecasted that John Swinney's party was set to win the election and be returned to power in a couple of months time for a record fifth term, one of his main points was that this likely result did not mean the SNP was popular among Scottish voters either as a party or as a government.

Could there be a post election alliance between the SNP and the Greens? (Image: NQ)

The most recent poll by Ipsos Mori suggested the SNP is backed by around 36% of people on the constituency voting intention and 26% on the regional list.

Both figures are considerably down from the party’s 2021 performance when it won 48% in the constituency part of the ballot and 40% on the regional list with the party winning 61 seats.

"The SNP is a lot less popular than they were five years ago," he said.

Why the SNP is still dominant is due to two main factors, he explained, one that the constitutional debate has not gone away (giving the SNP a sizeable chunk (65%) of Yes supporters), and secondly the troubles of its opponents and the fragmentation of the pro-UK vote.

The rise of Reform and the unpopularity of the UK Labour Government and Prime Minister Keir Starmer were both causing major challenges for Scottish Labour and its leader Anas Sarwar, he said.

Scottish Labour voters, he added, were more vulnerable to Reform's 'appeal' than the supporters of the party south of the Border.

Professor Curtice told the audience the rise in popularity of Nigel Farage's party north of the Border meant the Pro-UK vote was distributed more thinly among a greater number of parties making it harder for Unionist parties to win constituency seats - and easier for the SNP.

"First past the post is a measure not of absolute popularity but of relative popularity," he said.

And with the Scottish Greens forecast to win 12 seats, he noted the Scottish Parliament would have a pro-independence majority.

He asked whether this would mean another Bute House deal that Scotland saw struck between the SNP and the Scottish Greens in August 2021.

The pact of course broke down bitterly in April 2023 over differences on climate change and led to the resignation of First Minister Humza Yousaf.

Professor Curtice appeared to be reluctant to forecast the likelihood of Bute House 2.0.

However, interestingly, he suggested the possibility of another potential formal arrangement between the two pro-independence parties.

"We are probably looking at a minority parliament with the SNP the largest party but where the SNP has to negotiate with other parties," he concluded.

"Whether or not the SNP and the Greens might reach some kind of accommodation - less than Bute House but perhaps a confidence and supply arrangement - who knows?"

It's hard to say whether the property industry was heartened by what they heard at Professor Curtice's briefing, but its many members certainly left the hall much more informed.