Heating oil prices have soared in the wake of the US-Israel war with Iran, leaving around 142,000 Scottish households that rely on it with eye-watering bills.
They also face the conundrum: whether to stock up now and pay around double the price from just a few weeks ago or sit it out and hope the costs come down.
Before the conflict broke out, kerosene-based heating oil sat at around 60p per litre.
In recent days, however, it has leapt to around £1.30 per litre, with customers reporting they are not being given prices when they try to order and uncertainty over delivery dates.
What support is available?
A £53 million UK support package for vulnerable households “most exposed” to rising heating oil prices due to the conflict was announced by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer earlier this week.
Of that, £4.6m has been earmarked for Scotland.
The Scottish government has topped that up with a £5.4m pledge, making a total fund of £10m.
Who will receive help?
Around 1.5 million UK households rely on heating oil, usually in rural areas where fuel poverty is already high.
Five percent of Scottish households use it as their only source of central heating. That compares to three per cent in England and Wales, while in Northern Ireland the figure soars to 50 per cent.
Off-grid homes already face higher energy costs: 27% are said to be in extreme fuel poverty, compared with 18 per cent of those on the main grid.
The Scottish government says the emergency heating oil scheme will be launched on April 1.
Full details of eligibility criteria have yet to be announced, however the Treasury has indicated it should go to “low income and vulnerable households”.
In Scotland, it is expected it will be distributed through Advice Direct Scotland
What help will it bring?
A typical household tank holds around 1000 litres, with customers required to order a minimum of 500l at a time.
An average semi-detached, insulated property would normally use between 900l to 1200 litres per year. On top of their price of their oil, they would also pay 5% VAT.
Like supermarket bulk-buying, purchasing larger quantities in one go tends to work out cheaper, then buying ‘minimum’ top ups – giving people who can afford to spend more a slight advantage over less well-off.
Although Scotland's energy secretary Gillian Martin welcomed UK government support she warned it equated to just £33 per household using oil heating.
The Scottish government contribution of £5.6million should at least double that.
What about businesses?
Many rural businesses such as hotels, pubs and retailers rely on heating oil.
On the Isle of Mull, owners of The Bellachroy Inn, Matt Broom-Hughes and husband Thomas, received their heating oil delivery earlier this week and found the price had leapt from 62p per litre to £1.24.
Topping up the inn’s 2,500 litre tank cost £1,300.
As it stands, there has been no UK or Scottish government announcement concerning support for businesses which rely on heating oil.
Charandeep Singh, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, has called for support for businesses relying on heating oil.
He said: "This must include practical measures to manage costs in the short term, alongside more comprehensive support to invest in energy efficiency and lower costs alternatives over the longer term, helping businesses to build resilience against future price shocks."
His comments have been echoed by Colin Borland, Scotland Director for the Federation of Small Businesses.
He said: “The support package the UK government has announced has focused on households, not small businesses. Any rise in the cost of heating oil is going to hit many small rural businesses hard.
“They have already endured more than three years of relentlessly rising costs, for everything from hiring staff and utility bills to higher business rates for many. Small businesses cannot go on endlessly soaking up cost increases like this without real-world consequences.
“The Federation of Small Businesses is calling on the governments at Westminster and Holyrood to prioritise measures to tackle rising business costs.”
I use heating oil – should I buy more now?
With bills doubling and concerns over supplies it might be tempting to stock up.
However, there are warnings that panic buying will put pressure on supplies, driving the price higher.
Heating experts say it’s better to use existing supply wisely, avoid running your oil tank down too low which could lead to repair costs, and to make use of other forms of heating if possible, to protect existing supplies.
Why has heating oil been so badly affected?
Crude oil prices have jumped in the wake of the conflict, but kerosene, used for domestic heating oil, has risen faster.
Because it is also used for jet fuel, its price is at the mercy of global aviation fuel markets, rather than the crude oil price.
The wholesale price of jet fuel has more than doubled to a three-and-a-half-year peak.
European markets are particularly vulnerable: at least 40% of Europe’s jet fuel comes from the Middle East and is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently closed.
Because prices are rapidly changing several times a day, distributors struggle to give heating oil customers prices for their orders, particularly if their delivery is expected to take several days to arrive – a further complication for people living in outlying rural locations and islands.
Also, heating oil is not regulated by Ofgem, which means it is not subject to the price cap.
The UK government has said it intends to introduce new consumer protections for heating oil customers.
I don’t use heating oil – am I affected?
The price of gas has risen sharply in the wake of the attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex and is now double the level seen before the conflict began.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass, is effectively closed and no obvious timescale for it to reopen.
And oil refineries in Kuwait are on fire from Iranian strikes.
The energy bills price cap looks almost certain to increase dramatically when the protection expires in July.
According to the RAC, average petrol prices have hit an 18-month high of 142.62p a litre – up nearly 10p since the conflict began. Diesel has also risen by more than 20p to 162.66p
Mortgage rates are increasing due to lenders facing rising costs, and energy suppliers have already scrapped fixed energy deals, according to comparison site Uswitch.
Although there is an energy price cap set by energy regulator Ofgem, means prices are heading down in April, it is expected millions will eventually see a price hike in energy costs.
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