This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.
Support for independence remains stable. But its political force is fading.
The latest Lord Ashcroft poll, based on more than 2,100 voters ahead of May’s Holyrood election, puts Yes at 48 per cent and No at 52 among decided voters - still tight, still competitive.
That headline matters. It shows independence has not gone away. Years after the referendum, support remains intact.
But the more important finding sits beneath it.
Independence is not a driving priority for many voters, the poll appears to demonstrate.
Asked about the most important issues facing the country, voters point overwhelmingly to the NHS, the cost of living and the economy. Independence sits well behind. Even among SNP supporters, only a minority named it as a top priority.
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More immediate pressures such as public services and living standards now dominate political attention.
So the question is no longer whether independence is popular. It is whether it is urgent.
A “soft Yes” has always existed in Scotland. The independence movement has never been purely ideological. It has always included voters who could be persuaded in either direction depending on circumstances.
What looks different now is scale.
That softer, more conditional support no longer sits at the margins. It appears to define the centre of the Yes movement.
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The same pattern shows up when voters are asked how independence should happen.
Despite John Swinney's argument that a pro-independence majority at Holyrood would constitute a mandate for another referendum, only around a quarter of voters agree. A clear majority reject that logic. Only around 25% of those polled said a pro-independence Holyrood majority should equal a mandate for a referendum. Meanwhile 60% reject the idea.
That is a striking disconnect.
Support for independence as an idea is holding. But support for the strategy to deliver it is weak.
According to the poll, if a referendum were held tomorrow, most think No would win. But if it were held in five years, more believe Yes could come out on top.
There is a clear sense that independence is not winnable now - but might be later.
It is a familiar feeling that something matters, but not enough to act on today. Like saying to a friend “let’s meet up soon” instead of making a plan.
That is the risk for the independence movement: always within reach, but never quite now.
In some ways, this is a more difficult environment for independence than outright decline: support can sit near 50% indefinitely without ever translating into change.
The wider findings reinforce the point. Voters are not approaching this election through a constitutional lens. Asked what will shape their vote in the poll, respondents were more likely to cite general political positioning - backing a party, stopping another, or ensuring a “strong voice” - than either government performance or the question of independence itself.
Even among SNP voters, there are signs of fatigue. Some argue the party should focus on day-to-day issues and put independence to one side for now.
That has significant implications. Independence movements rely not just on support, but on intensity and direction. They require voters willing to prioritise the issue, accept a route to change, and sustain political pressure.
This poll suggests that intensity is missing.
Many voters lean Yes. But they are not voting on independence. They are not demanding a referendum. And they are not persuaded that the next Holyrood election should be treated as a trigger.
That creates a structural problem for the SNP. For years, the party has argued that electoral success can substitute for a formal referendum mandate. That argument depends on voters accepting the link.
Right now, they do not.
For unionist parties, the implications are clear. They do not need to defeat independence outright. They need to delay it. Question the mandate. Challenge the timing. Focus on process.
If voters are unconvinced on how independence happens, it does not matter if they support it in principle.
What emerges from this poll is a cooler constitutional landscape.
Scotland is not turning away from independence. But it is not moving decisively towards it either.
Instead, independence looks like a settled preference for many voters - one that coexists with more immediate concerns and does not override them.
That is the meaning of “soft Yes”. It is not new. But it is now dominant.
And until that changes, independence may remain close in the polls - but far from being delivered.
