Campaigners have called for caution from politicians as child poverty statistics are set to be revised down.
For the first time, poverty statistics will take into account household benefit records following concerns people taking part in an annual household survey have been under-reporting how much they receive in benefits.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) publishes a new set of figures today featuring social security data and will alter the poverty rates in Scotland – and the UK – from 2021 to 2025.
The Scottish Government’s interim target to reduce relative child poverty to 18% by 2023-24 was missed.
But experts believe this could push government ministers closer to the target of 10% of children in relative poverty by the end of the decade.
Chris Birt, associate director for Scotland at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, warned politicians against celebrating any reduction in child poverty data as the statistical change has not impacted the living conditions of the families affected.
He told The Herald: “Ultimately, these numbers don’t change a penny of what’s in anybody’s pockets. That’s the most important thing – it’s just having a better measure for poverty going forward.”
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The statistics will not be improved as significantly in Scotland as elsewhere in the UK, Mr Birt predicts, because they do not include Social Security Scotland data which distributes disability and carers benefits as well as the Scottish Child Payment.
But steps have been taken by ministers in Holyrood to marry up the data on Scottish disability benefits more closely with known caseloads.
He added: “Even if there is a fall, there’s still going to be tens of thousands – hundreds of thousands – of children in poverty.
“Nobody’s income will have gone up or down as a result in the changes to the stats.”
Advising political leaders against complacency, he said: “If politicians think that what appears to be an improvement in the numbers – improved meaning the collecting of statistics – is a reason for them to take their foot off the gas then they need to look out the window.
“They would be being really blind to the things they are no doubt hearing on the doorsteps or to the political disaffection that we see across the country.
“If it means that there are some families who are now, in statistical terms, £10 above the poverty line, that doesn’t mean there’s any change in their quality of living.
“Nobody should be complacent.”
Later this year, the UK Government will revise the figures back further, to 2018-19.
Despite the change, the trends in poverty are not anticipated to change, with the rate in the UK expected to be higher in 2023-24 than the previous two years.
Scotland’s trend of falling child poverty since the inception of the Scottish Child Payment is expected to remain the same.
Read more:
- 80,000 children currently live in 'very deep poverty'
- Find all articles in our Scotland's Forgotten Children series here
- I grew up in poverty – this is why I'm writing about it
- I know what it’s like to go to school hungry – does John Swinney?
Ahead of the data’s publication, John Dickie, director of the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) in Scotland, said the changes should help provide a better picture of how policies impact child poverty in the longer term.
He said: “In practice, it will mean some lower income families have a higher income in the data than previously reported, meaning fewer families in poverty and some families in less deep poverty than official statistics previously showed.
“But the stark reality is that whilst the new statistics are likely to confirm very welcome progress in Scotland, they will still show around one in five of Scotland’s children remain locked in poverty.
“The progress being made is too slow and not yet adequate to meet the child poverty targets unanimously backed by all Holyrood parties.
“That’s why in the run up to May’s election all the parties must now set out the actions they would take to build on recent progress and ensure the next Parliament unlocks more children from poverty every year it sits.”
Figures from 2023-24 showed that 22% of children were living in relative poverty, with the Scottish Government missing the interim target of 18% in 2023-24.
Legally binding targets – passed in parliament by every party in Holyrood – also commit to reducing absolute child poverty to under 5% by 2030 - a figure that currently sits at 17%.
The Scottish Government has also pledged to reduce relative child poverty to 10% and absolute to under 5% by 2030-31.
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