The SNP will fall short of an outright majority at May’s Holyrood election, fresh polling suggests.
Figures obtained by the Diffley Partnership predict that voters will elect 62 nationalist MSPs, two seats fewer than in 2021.
Using polling conducted by Survation between March 16 and 23, elections guru Mark Diffley contends that the Reform will form the official opposition to the SNP, securing 19 seats, while Scottish Labour will come third with 18 seats.
The Conservatives will lose almost 20 seats, returning 13 MSPs, followed by the Scottish Greens with 10 MSPs and the Liberal Democrats with seven.
The SNP comes first on both the constituency and list ballots, with thirty-five percent and 32% of the vote. Reform and Labour are tied for second place with 19% each on the constituency ballot.
Meanwhile, on the regional list, Reform’s support (18%) outstrips that of Labour (17%).
The Scottish Conservatives are projected to earn 11% and 13% of the vote on the constituency and list ballots, while the Scottish Greens are expected to pick up 8% and 11%.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to receive 8% on both ballots.
Commenting on the findings, Mr Diffley said: “As the campaign now gets properly underway, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority. Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture.
“Beyond the headline voting numbers, the survey also shows voters beginning to pay closer attention to the people who want to lead Scotland. Since February, we’ve seen a clear drop in the proportion of voters who say they ‘don’t know’ their view of each party leader, indicating that engagement is increasing as the election draws nearer.”
The Survation poll also found that John Swinney remained the most popular Scottish political leader, with a net favourability rating of -10.
By contrast, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has a net favourability rating of -47 among Scots, and the leader of the Scottish party, Anas Sarwar, has a net favourability rating of -25.
Malcolm Offord (-15) and Nigel Farage (-31) fare better than their Labour counterparts, although at the time of polling, most Scots (55%) had no opinion on Lord Offord.
Asked to choose who they would back in a hypothetical 1v1 scenario; 55% of voters said they would prefer Mr Swinney over Mr Sarwar, while 45% said they would support Mr Sarwar over the current First Minister.
However, both Mr Swinney and Mr Sarwar were tapped to defeat Lord Offord in a 1v1 contest for Bute House.
65% of voters would back Mr Swinney over the Reform UK Scotland boss, while 35% would support Lord Offord.
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Meanwhile, 58% of Scots would choose Mr Sarwar over Lord Offord, while 42% prefer the former Tory donor.
Mr Diffley added: “Favourability has softened for almost every leader. This suggests that as voters tune in to the campaign, they are assessing leaders more critically.
“Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office.
“With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further.”
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