Poll: Reform UK support drops as Labour back in second place

Scottish Labour has moved into second place in the race, with less than five weeks to go until crucial Scottish Parliament elections.

While the SNP retains a comfortable lead, Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading pollster, said that the drop in Reform support was “bad news” for John Swinney's party.

This is because it makes Mr Swinney’s aim of securing a majority harder to achieve, by tipping the balance in favour of unionist parties in a number of key constituency seats in areas such as Edinburgh and the North East.

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If Reform UK is seen as having lost momentum, Professor Curtice added, this could also help Labour and the Tories persuade voters who dislike the SNP to support their candidates through tactical voting.

Backing for Reform has fallen back to 15% in constituencies and on the regional list, both down four points compared with the last Norstat poll seven weeks ago.

It follows what has widely been seen as a disastrous start to its Holyrood campaign, with the party losing multiple candidates and others facing intense scrutiny for controversial past statements such as support for Tommy Robinson, the far-right agitator.

Malcolm Offord appointed by Mr Farage as Reform UK’s Scottish leader in January, made a succession of gaffes and faced intense scrutiny for a homophobic joke he told at a rugby club dinner in 2018. He has since apologised for the joke, saying he “accepts accountability”.

The former Tory peer recorded an approval rating of minus 32, nine points lower than his result in February. 

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The SNP is on 34 points in constituencies, down one, and unchanged at 30 on the regional list. Labour is polling at 19% in constituencies, up two, and remains at 17% on the list.

If the poll results were repeated on May 7, Professor Curtice projected that the SNP would emerge with 57 seats — eight short of a majority — with Labour the main opposition party with 20 seats and Reform third on 16.

“Support for Reform is down by four points on both ballots and is lower than in any Norstat poll since January 2025,” Curtice said.

“It must be concerned that the tide of support it has been enjoying has receded just weeks before it has the opportunity to turn polling numbers into electoral success.

“Following the US bombing of Iran, Nigel Farage’s close association with the US president may now be a disadvantage. Even those who voted Reform in Scotland in 2024 now give Donald Trump a negative net rating. Meanwhile, the party’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, is not proving an electoral asset.”

Commenting on the poll, Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: “It’s clearer than ever that this election is a straight choice between Scottish Labour and the SNP. 

 “After nearly two decades in government, the SNP is tired, complacent and out of touch and Scotland is crying out for change. 

 “More and more people are seeing through the rebranded Tories and self-promoting con artists in Reform after their disastrous campaign start, but the truth is they were never serious contenders in this race. 

 "The momentum is with Scottish Labour, while the SNP and Reform have been mired in scandal and chaos since the start of the campaign.

 “The only way to get rid of the SNP and fix the mess they have made of our NHS, our schools, our ferries and our communities is by electing a Scottish Labour government that will get the basics right. 

 “On May 7 we can choose change and deliver a better future for Scotland by voting for a Scottish Labour government led by Anas Sarwar.”

The Scottish Greens, unchanged at 8% in constituencies and up one to 12% on the list, would emerge as the fourth largest party with a record high of 13 MSPs, according to the projections.

However, the SNP may yet find itself aided by those who would prefer to vote for the Greens in constituency races, but find the party is not standing. The Scottish Greens have put up candidates in only six of 73 constituencies, with the main focus winning MSPs through the regional lists, elected through a system of proportional representation.

The Scottish Tories, with 11 and 10 per cent support respectively, would go from second place to fifth and return only 12 MSPs.

The Lib Dems, rising in constituencies and on the regional vote to 10% support on both, would be narrowly behind with 11 seats. The result would mean the return of Swinney to Bute House, but he would be reliant on support from another party to pass budgets or legislation.

In an interview with The Sunday Times conducted on Thursday, before the poll had been completed, Mr Swinney maintained that a majority for the SNP was within reach. The First Minister said that if he secured 65 seats, an independence referendum could take place as soon as 2028.

However, in the event that he fell short, he failed to rule out another deal with the Scottish Greens, despite his claim that economic growth would be a priority in the new term.