This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.
The start to Reform UK’s election campaign in Scotland is the last thing the party would have expected. So, what on earth is going on?
Before Reform unveiled its Holyrood election candidates two weeks ago, the party was riding pretty high in the polls.
Some had even predicted Malcolm Offord, the party’s leader in Scotland, could be the main opposition to John Swinney.
Every single day, political leaders are on the campaign trail across the country. But for Offord, the appearances have been few and far between.
Perhaps that is because the party has had to put out fires internally following what can only be described as a disastrous start to the Holyrood election campaign.
Candidates have been scrutinised with a fine-tooth comb – from social media posts calling former first minister Humza Yousaf a “grandstanding Islamist moron” to homophobic jokes resurfacing.
And voters have given their clearest signal yet of what they really think of Offord, the former Tory peer.
The most recent polling, conducted by Norstat for the Sunday Times, sees Offord’s approval rating slump by nine points in two months, putting him at minus 32.
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It also predicts the party would fall to third place, on 16 seats. That is Reform’s lowest rating in Scotland in more than a year and there can be no doubt the chaotic start to the election campaign has played its part.
Reform’s support falls to 15% on constituency and regional ballots, down four percentage points from the polling firm’s last survey seven weeks ago.
So where did it all go wrong?
Well to put it mildly, there has been a bit of internal drama plaguing the party over the last week or so.
Offord dismissed the concerns during an interview with the Holyrood Sources podcast.
He seemed pretty reluctant to address any of the controversy, including claims the party had lost its new – and only – communications officer.
Amanda Crawford left her post suddenly after just a few months in the job, telling journalists she was being prevented from doing her job properly.
It hints at deeper problems internally and adds to the complaints of former candidates.
Before nominations were submitted to the Electoral Commission last week, five candidates had been withdrawn. Four left of their own accord and one – Stuart Niven – was suspended after we revealed he had been banned from serving as a company director for diverting funds from a Covid loan into his own bank account.
By the time candidates were locked in on Thursday, a total of nine had left Reform.
Some left for personal and family reasons, The Herald understands, but others opened the door to the drama going on away from the public’s eyes.
A senior party source told me that at least three of the quitters left after being given a low placing on the regional list, effectively meaning they would not be elected to Holyrood.
The word used to describe the trio was “opportunists”.
James Glen, who withdrew as a candidate for Edinburgh North Western, accused the party of being “happy to take months of my web development work for free” and then ignoring his messages when he needed candidacy support.
He was placed at the bottom of the list in Mid Scotland and Fife and announced he was stepping down days later.
Meanwhile, Todd Ferguson, the councillor in North Ayrshire who defected from the Tories last year, was not a candidate in this election. But he quit the party last week, with a scathing exit statement suggesting all was not well.
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He accused Reform’s Scotland branch of “infighting”, holding “secret meetings” against candidates and “amateurism”.
Addressing the turmoil, Offord said: “80% of our candidates have never been politicians. So it’s a completely different ball game from any other parties dealing with it.”
The verdict though? It doesn’t even matter. Reform’s political popularity appears to be a rarity in that its core base doesn’t – and won’t – waver regardless of the media storm.
Where they seem to get it right, is reaching the people who are utterly fed up with the status quo. Whether Reform will actually offer anything different doesn’t matter.
They may lose support in opinion polls and fail to win over some disgruntled Labour and Tory voters, but the reality is, their presence in Holyrood next month will most likely be substantial.
If politics teaches us anything, it’s that this is just one opinion poll. And with just over four weeks to polling day, Reform are still very much in the race for second place.
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