Pollster attacks Scotland’s 'perverse' voting system

Writing on his Substack, he said pro-independence supporters should instead vote for the Scottish Greens.

The pollster, who describes himself as someone who wants the “UK to stay together”, said Scotland’s electoral system was “perverse” as it could lead to a pro-independence majority in Holyrood despite most Scots voting for unionist parties.

Over the weekend, a poll by Norstat suggested the SNP could win around 57 of Scotland’s 73 constituency seats on roughly 34% support.

Because the regional list system is designed to compensate parties underrepresented in constituency results, that means the SNP is unlikely to win any additional seats via the lists.

Mr Kellner said that created a powerful incentive for tactical voting among pro-independence supporters.

“Every regional vote for the SNP will be a wasted vote. It cannot elect a single extra SNP parliamentarian. Every voter who wants to guarantee a majority for independence at Holyrood should cast their regional vote for the Greens, not the SNP.

He described this as a form of “strategic voting” that could significantly amplify the number of pro-independence MSPs returned.

He added: “SNP supporters who simply want to punish Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, and who do not care either for their Scottish counterparts, should also vote Green in the regional section, in order to minimise the number of Labour, Tory and Reform MSPs.

“Anyone voting SNP in their regional list will hurt the Greens and help the cause of the unionists they dislike.”

He said this “absurd” voting system meant that voting Green was not just a “rational choice” for SNP supporters on the regional list but “their only rational choice”.

Drawing on projections from polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice, Mr Kellner said his own estimates suggested that, if half of all SNP supporters switched to the Greens on the list, that would give them 23 seats and the pro-independence parties a total of 80.

If all SNP supporters backed the Greens, that would see Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer’s party win 32 seats, taking the number of independence-supporting MSPs to 89.

Mr Kellner said: “Those figures are estimates. All polls are subject to margins of error. Translating votes into seats can also be an uncertain business.

“We cannot be certain that conventional assumptions will produce a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.

“Together, the SNP and Greens need to fall just six seats short of Curtice’s projections for the unionist parties to win a collective majority.

“This adds to the incentive for SNP supporters to give their regional vote to the Greens. They have the power to guarantee a majority for independence — and, if enough of them make the strategic switch, they will ensure a landslide.”

Mr Kellner said London might want to respond to a pro-independence majority by looking at votes rather than seats, given most voters will back unionist parties.

However, he said Labour “should be wary of deploying that argument” given its landslide in 2024 was won with 34% of the vote across the UK.

The pollster said Scotland’s Parliament has a voting system that was “no longer fit for purpose”.

He wrote: “[For] those of us who want the UK to stay together should prepare for a bitter battle between Westminster and Holyrood. It will not just decide the future of these islands. It could raise big questions about the way Scottish democracy works.”

However, John Swinney has discouraged independence supporters from voting for any party other than the SNP.

Under a strategy agreed by SNP members last year, if the party wins more than 65 seats at May’s election, this would then be taken by the Scottish Government as a mandate to start negotiations for a second vote on independence.

An attempt to widen this out to a pro-independence majority was defeated.

There is no mechanism that allows the Scottish Government to unilaterally hold a referendum.