Poll shows Scottish Labour slump behind Greens and Reform

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar <i>(Image: Robert Perry)</i>
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (Image: Robert Perry)
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The SNP has extended its lead ahead of May's Holyrood election, while Scottish Labour slumps to fourth place behind the Greens and Reform, according to the latest poll.

The results put the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote, a three-point increase since March, with a 24-point lead over Labour and Reform UK, both at 15%. If replicated on polling day, this would be a much weaker performance than in 2021's election, when they won 48%.

Anas Sarwar's party, following a five-point slump, is now tied in second place with Reform in the constituency vote, which lost one point.

The Scottish Conservatives' support rose slightly, gaining two points to 11%, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens stayed put on 10% and 7% respectively.

The Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor surveyed 1,038 adults in the first week of election campaigning, on March 26 and March 31.


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Four in 10 of those surveyed say they may change their minds before the day, and 12% intend to tactically vote.

In the regional list, the SNP has also gained three points, rising to 29%. The Greens are pulling in 16%, and are now tied with Reform, which has gained 2 points.

Labour has lost a further four points regionally, while the Conservatives have risen to 13% and the Liberal Democrats have dropped to 9%.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage poses for the media with Malcom Offord at a press conference to announce Malcolm Offord as the Reform UK leader in Scotland. (Image: PA)

The regional list system uses eight regions - Central, Glasgow, Highlands & Islands, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife, North East, South, West - to elect seven extra MSPs per region to Holyrood via proportional representation.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: "The SNP will be buoyed by these new numbers.

"Our poll shows them improving their polling lead early in the Holyrood election campaigns. John Swinney’s approval rating has risen, and the party remains the most trusted to handle the biggest issue for voters at this election, the NHS.

"Meanwhile, the poll makes grim reading for Scottish Labour, showing their support weakening on both constituency and regional list votes.

"With more than four in ten voters saying they may change their minds, however, none of Scotland’s parties can afford to be complacent.

"For the SNP, voters switching allegiance between now and polling day could make the crucial difference to whether the party wins a majority of seats or is again a minority government."

(Image: Michael Boyd/PA Wire)

Projections now stand that the SNP would win 63 seats in the next Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Greens would take 17 seats, while Scottish Labour would win 14, dropping behind Reform UK, which would take 15 seats.

The remainder would be split between the Scottish Conservatives, projected to take 12 seats, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats, who are on course for eight seats.

This leaves a few options for coalitions and influence over the next Government if the SNP does not win a majority. The least divisive option among those polled appears to be the Scottish Liberal Democrats, with 32% saying they would be happy to see them having influence over the next Scottish Government, and just 14% saying they would be unhappy with that outcome.

More divisively, 34% would be happy to see the Scottish Green Party having influence going forward, while 29% would be unhappy. While 32% would be happy to see Scottish Labour having influence, but 27% would be unhappy.

Over half, 52%, would be unhappy to see Reform UK having influence over Holyrood next, and 40% say the same of the Conservatives .

Healthcare remains the top issue, with 56% saying it is at the top of their list when deciding where to vote, an unchanged share from March's poll.

This is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living, which has returned to 41%, identical to December 2025 after a six-point dip in March.

On who voters think is best to trust to deal with the cost of living, Labour has now fallen to third behind Reform.

Immigration also remains a key issue for 27%, followed by energy policy, which has appeared in the top 5 public issues for the first time.

A quarter of those polled say Scottish independence will be "very important" to how they'll vote, but remain 50/50 on whether they would vote Yes or No.

Independence supporters rally in EdinburghScottish independence march in Edinburgh (Image: Colin Mearns)

None of the party leaders asked about are rated positively overall by the public. This contrasts with the early-campaign position in 2021, when most party leaders were viewed positively.

Current First Minister John Swinney's ratings have improved, with his 40% core satisfaction rate thought to be the highest it has ever been; however, 48% say that they are dissatisfied, a net satisfaction rating of -8 and an upward swing of +4 since February.

Anas Sarwar's approval rating has not moved, with 26% of the public satisfied with him and 55% dissatisfied.

Dissatisfaction with Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord has increased to 57%, with 16% approving, a downward swing of -4.5 since March.

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