In May, the SNP will face its biggest challenge in the capital in several election cycles.
The party is facing strong challengers from the Lib Dems and Greens in several key constituencies.
Cabinet secretary Angus Robertson, who flipped Edinburgh Central from the Conservatives in 2021, has called on progressive voters to back him again in a bid to block right-wing parties from the seat.
However, his stiffest competition is the Greens’ Lorna Slater, followed by Labour’s James Dalgleish.
In fact, data by Ballot Box Scotland suggests that Mr Robertson could lose his seat. He is projected to receive 22.4% of the vote, behind Labour on 23.1% and the Greens on 30.6%.
Mr Robertson has perhaps lost some of his shine. He was criticised by activists and senior SNP politicians after meeting with Israel's deputy ambassador to the UK in August 2024.
Meanwhile, the party’s candidate in Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith, MSP Ben Macpherson, is projected to be elected to his third term in Holyrood.
Mr Macpherson, most recently the Minister for Higher and Further Education in John Swinney’s government, previously served in the cabinet between 2018 and 2023.
He is projected to win re-election with 35.7% of the vote, ahead of Green activist Kate Nevens, who is expected to receive 27.5%.
The SNP faces a big challenge in Edinburgh Northern, where SNP councillor Euan Hyslop is contesting the constituency.
He will square off with fellow councillor Sanne Dijkstra-Downie, who has told The Herald she is confident of flipping the seat.
A victory for Mr Hyslop, who is a father and small business owner, will go a long way to securing a SNP majority, which Mr Swinney has set as the catalyst for fresh discussions on a second independence referendum.
He is currently tipped to defeat Ms Dijkstra-Downie by 3.5 percentage points, 29.4% to 25.9%.
The party’s candidate in the neighbouring constituency, Edinburgh North Western, will not fare as well. East Lothian councillor Lyn Jardine has drawn the short straw and is tasked with fighting for Alex Cole-Hamilton’s seat.
Mr Cole-Hamilton has overwhelming support in the area, and was comfortably elected in 2021. This year, he is projected to win the seat with a majority of 35.7 percentage points.
Ms Jardine is expected to finish a distant second, with 23.9% of the vote, while Mr Cole-Hamilton is projected to secure an outright majority of 59.5%.
However, the party is expected to comfortably win the Edinburgh South Western constituency.
SNP group leader Simita Kumar is well-placed to be elected to Holyrood.
Ms Kumar has said she wants to be part of the next generation of SNP MSPs.
She said: “I moved to Scotland from the Fiji Islands as a teenager, and Scotland has become my home. It’s where I’ve built my life, served my community, and committed myself to the values we all share.
“Before entering politics, I dedicated my career to the NHS, working on the frontlines and behind the scenes. I’ve seen how Scottish Government policies can make a real difference—but also how Westminster decisions constantly hold us back.”
She is projected to receive 41.2% of the vote, ahead of Labour and the Tories, both on 18%.
To the west, in Edinburgh Southern, the party is projected to fall short to Labour MSP Daniel Johnson.
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The SNP’s original candidate, Sally Donald, was forced to step down after it was reported she was being investigated by Social Security Scotland over her claim of adult disability benefit (ADP).
She was later told to repay £20,000 in benefits.
The party’s replacement, Deidre Brock, is the former SNP MP for Edinburgh North and Leith.
She is projected to receive 31.4% of the vote, second to Mr Johnson’s 38.6%.
While the SNP is expected to come first on the regional list in terms of vote share, due to the proportional nature of the D’Hondt system, they are not expected to receive any list MSPs in the region.
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