The SNP have a close to 90% chance of attaining a majority in the 2026 Holyrood election, according to a major polling firm.
A new survey by YouGov has 89% of simulations showing a majority in the Scottish Parliament for John Swinney's party, with the model's central estimate giving them 67 seats.
Reform UK would be the main opposition in the modelling, taking between 17 and 23 seats, but the central estimate also predicts the largest total for pro-independence parties at any Holyrood election to date, with the SNP and Scottish Greens slated to get 78 between them.
Overall the model suggests a range for pro-independence parties of between 69 and 82 seats, relative to a combined range of 45 to 58 for the unionist parties.
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The range for the SNP goes from just short of a majority with 63 up to 69, but the model predicts an 89% chance of a majority.
The poll predicts Scottish Labour would win just 15 seats, none of them in the constituency vote, with only seven for the Scottish Conservatives.
The survey is the first MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) poll by YouGov for the upcoming election.
An MRP poll combines a very large poll with other sources of information such as census data to model both the national and local picture.
YouGov predicts the Scottish Greens could win their first ever constituency seat in Edinburgh Central, where Lorna Slater is in a three-way fight with the SNP's Angus Robertson and James Dalgleish of Scottish Labour.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats are projected to win Caithness, Sutherland and Ross; Shetland; Orkney; Fife North East and Edinburgh North Western.
The Conservatives are slated to come first in Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire to give them one constituency seat but face a challenge from both the SNP and Reform.
Of the 67 seats Mr Swinney's party is expected to win, 66 of those would come via the constituency vote.
Under the electoral system for the Scottish Parliament success in the constituencies makes it harder to win list seats, so under the model the SNP would win just one in the Highlands and Islands despite being set to win the most regional votes in all eight regions.
While margins in some seats are very tight, the model suggests 20 of the regional seats are projected to be allocated to Reform UK, with 15 going to Labour, ten to the Greens, six to the Conservatives and four to the Lib Dems.
Support for the Greens is particularly strong in the Glasgow and Edinburgh and Lothians East regions, where one in five voters (20-21%) intend to cast their regional vote for the party, relative to 9-12% in other regions.
Reform UK’s vote is almost a mirror image of this, standing at just 14-15% in the regions of Scotland’s two biggest cities, but as high as 24% in the South Scotland region.
YouGov says there is a "real chance" of the Conservatives coming in sixth place, with their projected vote share of a combined 8% the lowest in history.
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