The outcome of the next Holyrood election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in the history of the Scottish Parliament.
After 19 years in government, the SNP, under John Swinney is still widely expected to secure another five-year term in power, according to multiple polls published this year.
The big question, then, is not who will form the government, but how strong their mandate will be.
Five pivotal seats, where Labour and the Conservatives are fighting to defend once-safe territory, could determine the balance of power in the new parliament.
Reform UK is looking to make its mark in a clutch of constituency and regional seats, while the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are on course for record representation.
Here are the key battlegrounds that could decide this election.
Ayr
If polls are correct, the Ayr constituency, which also covers Prestwick and Troon, is on course to have MSPs from four different political parties since 1999.
But in the 2021 election, it was the most marginal seat, with the SNP’s Siobhian Brown – the most recent community safety minister - beating the Conservatives by just 170 votes.
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The Conservatives held the seat since 2000 after beating Labour in a by-election.
More in Common’s multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll suggests another tight fight in Ayr. Only this time, it’ll turn turquoise in a win for Reform UK, with a 2% higher vote share than the SNP, while the Tories would trail in third.
But that’s not the full story. A separate MRP poll by Stonehaven suggests the SNP will just clinch the win in a narrow win over Reform, making this seat a must watch.
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Kate Forbes took the SNP to a stomping victory at the last election, with a majority of 15,861 votes in 2021. That was the highest majority of any other seat by more than 2,000 votes.
But for the first time since this seat’s creation in 2011, it looks likely to turn orange.
More in Common’s poll suggests it’ll be a close one, but without the high-profile pull from Forbes, the Lib Dems are confident.
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Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, has had this seat marked out long before Ms Forbes announced her intention to step down.
SNP insiders tell me they fear they have already lost here – but it’ll be close.
Dumbarton
Jackie Baillie, the deputy leader of Scottish Labour, had held the Dumbarton constituency since 1999.
In every single election since, she has fought off the SNP with the tightest of margins.
In 2021, Baillie won with 1,483 seats – a slim 3.8% majority, while the 2016 election had the SNP a nail-biting 109 seats away from unseating her.
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill
This new seat was created by amalgamating Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and Springburn as part of the recent parliamentary boundaries.
Glasgow Kelvin was first won by Labour before being held by the SNP since 2011 – most recently by equalities minister Kaukab Stewart.
The SNP’s Bob Doris won the Maryhill and Springburn seat from Labour in 2016 with almost 8,000 more votes. But the projections this time do not look favourable for the SNP.
Doris looks set to be defeated by Iris Duane, the Scottish Greens candidate. Doris isn’t on the regional list, so the SNP could lose an experienced politician here.
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
The future of North Sea industries has been a significant part of this election – from oil and gas to fisheries.
The SNP narrowly beat the Conservatives here in 2021. But Reform UK are predicted to win the seat with a significant margin.
If that happens, it will change the tone of the discussion on the future of North Sea oil and gas industry, with Reform UK in favour of significantly more drilling.
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