Scotland is set to see the country's first openly transgender MSP elected this week, a final poll before the election on Thursday has suggested.
Modelling by YouGov points to a win for Scottish Greens candidate Iris Duane in the Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill constituency where she is forecast to beat the SNP which will come second in the seat.
Along with Edinburgh Central, where former Greens co-leader Lorna Slater is standing against SNP cabinet minister Angus Robertson, it is one of two constituencies the Greens are predicted to win according to the study based on YouGov polling 6,543 people between April 25 and May 5.
If the polling proves correct they will be the first constituency seats won by the party led by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay.
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YouGov’s central projection now puts the SNP on 62 seats, down from 67 less than a month ago and set to be denied a majority by unionist tactical voting in key seats.
Reform UK would emerge as the second-largest party, with 19 seats, in a tight race to become the main opposition.
Labour would win 17 seats, just one more than the Scottish Greens, which are projected to win their first ever constituencies, ousting senior cabinet minister Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central.
The LibDems would emerge with eight seats, all but one of which would be in first-past-the-post races, with the Tories going from the largest opposition party to the smallest, returning just seven MSPs.
Writing on X last night Ms Duane said: "Not only does YouGov have the Greens reaching a historic 16 MSPs. But in Kelvin & Maryhill we’ve been moved from second to first.
"Kelvin and Maryhill I would be honoured to be your next MSP … but the only poll that matters is Thursday."
Last month, John Swinney's party was on course to comfortably meet the 65-seat target the First Minister claims would be a mandate for a new independence referendum, according to modelling that takes into account demographics as well as voting intention for Scots.
YouGov said in April that in 89% of thousands of simulations it ran using its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling method, the SNP would win an outright majority.
However, the likelihood has now fallen back to just 11%, according to a poll for The Times, with pro-Union parties set to claim four constituencies previously forecast to be won by Mr Swinney’s party and the Greens a further seat previously predicted to be won by the SNP.
Another pro-independence majority at Holyrood is seen as a near-certainty, with the Scottish Greens poised to make a historic breakthrough.
The new seat of Edinburgh Northern, as well as Strathkelvin & Bearsden, are now predicted to be won by the Liberal Democrats,
Patrick English, head of elections and political and social data at YouGov, told The Times: “The SNP have clearly been pegged back between our two models owing in part to a slight decline in their own vote share, but more importantly, a drive upwards from the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats in some constituency seats where they are the best placed Unionist challenger. Each are now, we believe, winning at least one constituency contest each.
“The SNP’s projected majority in our April model was built on the back of winning 66 out of Scotland’s 72 available constituencies. Today, that figure has dropped to 61.
“While this will be disappointing news for John Swinney and his party, it has not seriously damaged his prospects of returning to Bute House as first minister. The SNP, plus Green seat totals, are more than enough to govern Scotland in 99% of model simulations."
On Wednesday, party leaders will embark on the final day of campaigning. Mr Swinney is expected to emphasise the SNP’s plans to tackle the cost of living, including a controversial supermarket price cap on staple products, in his final message to voters.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, has maintained throughout the campaign that his party can defy the odds — and opinion polls — and oust the SNP from power.
