🗳️Unspun: SNP faces North Sea test in Aberdeen by-election

Two First Ministers later, and we're still waiting for the final version of that strategy to materialise.

But, significantly, last month, in the white heat of the election campaign, John Swinney appeared to soften his party's position on new drilling in the North Sea.

He said energy security should be considered in any new decisions on further exploration, though he stopped short of backing specific projects such as Rosebank and Jackdaw.

It was a change, but still left many questions unanswered. The First Minister may need to confront some of those questions sooner rather than later.

It's still to be confirmed but most parties are working towards June 18 as the likely date for the three looming by-elections in Aberdeen South, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and Makerfield.

Given the existential consequences for Keir Starmer and Labour, the vote in North West England will likely get the most coverage, for obvious reasons.

But the contest in the North East of Scotland is worth watching too.

The Tories have selected Douglas Lumsden, elected as an MSP less than two weeks ago, to be their candidate.

Meanwhile, Reform Scotland has opted for Jo Hart, a former midwife. This will be her third contest for Nigel Farage's party.

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Unsurprisingly, both parties have put oil and gas at the centre of their pitch to voters.

Unsurprising because this constituency probably has the highest concentration of oil and gas workers and oil and gas businesses in the whole of the UK.

"It's clear that the North Sea did feature in the decision making" when it came to the Scottish Parliament vote in the city, Fergus Mutch, managing partner of True North consultancy, tells me.

In the Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine constituency, the SNP's Stephen Flynn won 11,788 votes, with Tory Liam Kerr not that far behind him on 10,544.

Reform UK's Duncan Massey came third with 6,113. Labour was a distant fifth.

Flynn's victory and Holyrood's new double jobbing rules are why there's now a Westminster by-election in Aberdeen South.

It's a vote that could come down to the SNP and the Tories, away from the hard line positions on oil and gas of Reform and Labour.

The mounting anxiety in the sector could shape the result.

The Energy Profits Levy (EPL) — the windfall tax introduced by the Conservatives and subsequently doubled down upon by Labour — currently sits at a headline rate of 78%.

Mutch says there is a $17 billion funnel of investment that could be unlocked before 2030 — if the UK government moves on the EPL with sufficient speed.

The conversations were happening, he notes, as recently as early spring, before the situation in Iran.

But the window for industry is not indefinite.

"They need that certainty sooner rather than later, or else that funnel of investment starts to become much more uncertain," he says.

That uncertainty has not been helped by Keir Starmer's programme for government, set out in last week's King's Speech, which included an Energy Independence Bill that would permanently ban new oil and gas drilling licences in the UK.

Reform meanwhile launched their by-election campaign with a promise to “drill Scotland drill”.

But Mutch is sceptical of their longer-term appeal in this patch.

"They do borrow votes from all parties to varying degrees, so some of that vote undoubtedly comes straight from the Tories, some of it comes from Labour. There are former SNP voters also.

"I think whoever goes into this by-election with a clear promise on the future of energy in the UK and the North Sea will do well.

"Reform's problem is that they are so sceptical to the point of being slightly unserious in a lot of regards when it comes to renewables."

The party's hostility to renewables, he suggests, sits awkwardly in a region whose supply chain knows it must eventually pivot.

"North Sea oil and gas is in the latter part of its trajectory," he says. "There needs to be investment now and confidence afforded to renewables and new technology."

BBC Question Time election special in Aberdeen (Image: BBC)

During the election campaign, when the BBC's Question Time was coming from Aberdeen for an election special, the SNP's Màiri McAllan was asked directly whether there should be more drilling.

She replied: "If it can be demonstrated that it's both climate compatible and required for energy security, then yes, it should."

It's fair to say the answer, that hedging of bets, didn't go down well with the audience.

It also won't go down well on the doorstep. This is a seat where voters understand the detail.

"The North Sea already has the most stringent climate compatibility regime in the world," Mutch, a former SNP director of communications, notes. "You produce oil and gas from the North Sea with some of the lowest production emissions anywhere."

The question the SNP will need to find an answer on, he says, is not whether North Sea production is clean enough but whether, for as long as demand for hydrocarbons persists, Britain produces them domestically or imports them from elsewhere.

The prize in Aberdeen South, he adds, will go to whichever party can promise to protect oil and gas output for as long as it is needed, while laying the groundwork "so that we have a future for Aberdeen and renewables".