Scotland is missing out.
We’ve seen dramatic shifts in political power in Wales – if not a complete redrawing of the electoral map. Reform UK has established a powerbase in English local government at the expense of the traditional big two. And Westminster has been gripped with rolling news speculation about the Prime Minister’s future, as rivals weigh up their positions, constantly calculating and miscalculating. At the same time, we have the prospect of the most consequential by-election in a generation – and a bonus mayoral election – in the north-west of England.
So where’s our political drama? We’ve just re-elected the SNP to a record fifth term in power and John Swinney is settling back into his favourite armchair in Bute House. It’s just dull, dull, dull and more of the same.
Or is it?
I suspect the political drama in our next parliamentary term will turn out to be a drawn-out four-act operatic epic, not a quick revue sketch.
Because it’s not – it can’t be – more of the same.
For a start, there’s a change in cast.
The 64 new faces in the Chamber make up pretty much half of it and is the largest intake of new members since 1999. Every one of them will bring fresh experience, perspectives and knowledge, which I hope will be to the parliament’s advantage and drive up the quality of debate and legislation.
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And there are new faces in the most important seats around the Cabinet table too.
Stephen Flynn will be busy in the expanded economy, transport and tourism brief. And Ivan McKee has his work cut out as Cabinet Secretary for Public Service Reform. Or, if we’re being completely honest, the Cabinet Secretary for Plugging the Fiscal Blackhole.
Because this is the other, much bigger, difference this parliament faces – the looming £5bn gap which public audit chiefs have identified in the country’s finances.
To put it in context, £5bn is the cost of employing more than 96,000 staff nurses, including pension costs and employer’s National Insurance Contributions, or more than 84,000 fully-qualified teachers. It could dual the A9 and still leave you with more than £1bn in change.
Plugging the gap will not be easy. But, to put it bluntly, Scotland is fast running out of fiscal road and something has to give. We’re used to politicians telling us they need to make tough choices. This time, they’ll have to mean it. And, to be fair, no-one in that new Cabinet is better placed to take this on than Mr McKee.
We need action to make government more efficient and, crucially, unlock every ounce of economic potential.
That will require a tighter grip on the public wage bill. It was the unfunded pay rises for well-paid professions, such as doctors, that contributed to this funding chasm in the first place. Scotland’s increasingly large and top-heavy civil service – where staff costs have doubled in eight years – will have to be reviewed.
There seems to be a measure of agreement that this will include cutting bureaucracy and duplication by streamlining the huge number of public bodies in Scotland. You could do far worse than start with scrapping the 14 regional business rates assessors in favour of a single national body. That would make its work more efficient, transparent and consistent at a stroke.
On the other side of the balance sheet, kickstarting sustainable economic growth will be critical. And that’s where we at the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) come in, highlighting a range of measures to boost the economy by freeing up small businesses to trade us back to growth.
These ideas include practical steps to tackle rising overheads, such as business rates; regulating more sensibly and proportionately; and closing the skills gaps which hold employers back.
Elsewhere, it’s now more important than ever that we get the biggest economic bang for our buck from existing public spending. That’s why delivering on the Scottish Government’s Community Wealth Building goals offers a golden opportunity. We know from experience that giving small firms a fairer crack of the whip when bidding for public contracts gets a bigger return on investment for the local economy – not least because the money multiplies as it circulates round the local area.
One way or another, things are going to have to change. Scottish politics might not be playing out the same high-octane thriller going on elsewhere in Britain right now. But, if we don’t spot the danger and take control, we’ll soon be staging a classical tragedy.
Colin Borland is Scotland Director for the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB)
