There is, these days, a palpable sense of energy associated with Number 10, whether in Downing Street or Manchester. A drive to get things done. We had the cut in VAT on domestic energy bills and, for England, the £2 cap on bus fares, the curbs on business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues plus the instruction to end rough sleeping. Each adding to an impression of action.
However, that sentiment will prove entirely illusory if there is no accompanying endeavour on the core problem confronting these islands. Our economy. That is the cavernous gap in the Burnham programme thus far.
Now, to be fair, any big announcements will come in John Healey’s autumn budget. And you may tell me that several of the Downing Street directives are designed to ameliorate the lives of folk who feel precipitously poised rather too close to the cliff edge. That is so – but, thus far, there is minimal evidence as to how the PM hopes or intends to stimulate our flagging, stagnant economy. To release the revenues to fund his worthwhile and valid intentions on welfare and family support, for example.
Let me say firstly that Burnham’s enthusiasm is welcome. He is genuine in his desire to improve the lives of our citizens. That can lead him, on occasion, to sound evangelical, talking about renewing our society after four decades of neo-liberal neglect. But there is also a pragmatic strain in evidence. It would appear, for example, that he is ready to consider further development of North Sea oil and gas, in the light of the global energy crisis. I doubt he will find much opposition on that one from Bute House.
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Yet his comments on the economy fall short. He says he is pro-business. He says he wants economic expansion. But there are very few indications thus far as to how he might achieve those aims. There is, somehow, a gap.
Look at his announcement on allocating a share of Treasury income tax revenue to mayors and regional strategic authorities in England. (Where such authorities do not exist, they will be formed within the present council structure.) Burnham says this will “make good” on his pledge to “bring power home” to “every postcode in the country”.
However, that was not quite the original promise. His opening pledge, repeated when he met the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales, was to provide “good growth” in every postcode. For emphasis, he added that he meant every postcode in the UK, not just England. The objective was expansion, not redistribution from the Treasury.
To be fair, the new announcement is presumably predicated on further details to emerge in the Budget. But, thus far, there is no sign as to how it would enhance the economy. It would enable strategic authorities to spend allocated cash. With Scotland having the option to follow suit. It could be argued that better, smarter deployment might act as a stimulus. But, again as outlined, there is no plan to enable authorities to vary tax take, to offer a potential incentive to individuals or companies. So, of itself, there is little evidence that this would drive the growth Burnham seeks and the economy craves.
Let us look at other comparable initiatives. For example, the plan to allow secondary pupils in England to study practical subjects, such as manufacturing and AI. This is a welcome initiative. With luck, it might help schools provide a curriculum which interests the pupils, rather than trying to impose trigonometry and the Romantic poets on truculent teens. It might.
Again, though, there is a big snag here. Where are the relevant jobs? Where is the accompanying industrial sector? You do not wish that into existence by studying tech and robotics at school, however well-intentioned that endeavour might be. You need to grow the economy.
Burnham talks, more broadly, of an attempt to reindustrialise our society. But those jobs vanished because our industries were no longer globally competitive. You cannot wave a wand and summon engineering back to Glasgow or jute mills back to Dundee. We may seek to foster new industries through, for example, directed public procurement, as Burnham has suggested. But that will not be sufficient. To survive and thrive, companies need customers beyond the public purse.
Also, I fret when I hear politicians enthuse about AI. I suspect that they do not truly know what they are talking about. If pressed, they will happily have about computer algorithms. In a previous century, their predecessors drooled over the emperor’s new clothes. Now, I freely confess that the last time I studied computing was at school, when I was introduced to Algol and Fortran. My present-day expertise consists in yelling pointlessly at stubborn screens. However, I still suspect that there may be less to AI than meets the human eye. Yes, we should prepare our society and our economy. We should equip our offspring. But we should look with scepticism upon big tech and its stories of self-starting, rogue software.
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But back to Burnham. I admire his energy. I applaud his enthusiasm. I believe him to be well-motivated and relatively free from stifling dogma. However, these attributes are not enough in this troubled world. His choice of domain – Downing Street or Coronation Street – will matter not one whit if the Iran conflict escalates and oil goes back above $100 a barrel.
In addition, several of his ideas thus far are likely to cost money rather than provide growth and revenue. Most notably, his plan for the care sector. Yes, this is vital to alleviate pressure on the NHS. But previous attempts in both England and Scotland have floundered for lack of consensus and cash.
Plus economic policy counts here too. Scottish care providers say they are hindered by curbs on visas for international workers and by higher employers’ NI. Both in Burnham’s hands. This week the Bank of England held interest rates steady – but warned that “high and volatile energy prices” could send inflation up later this year. Andy Burnham is experienced and highly intelligent. He knows the economic dilemma we face. However, we have yet to hear his analysis – and solutions, if any.
Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre and Dundee United FC.
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