Things look certain to remain tough on the economic front – as has been the case throughout the UK for so long now – and this difficult backdrop made strong Scottish gross domestic product figures last week all the more welcome.
The latest data, published by the Scottish Government’s chief economist directorate, may have come as a surprise to many given the generally politically and ideologically fuelled narrative that the economic situation north of the Border is grim. The narrative is, in broad terms, that the Scottish economy is some sort of basket case. This narrative always seems disproportionately noisy in the Scottish political echo chamber.
So what did the latest economic output figures for Scotland show?
Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7% in real terms quarter-on-quarter between April and June. This was well ahead of growth of 0.4% in the UK as a whole over the same timeframe.
In the three months to June, Scottish services output grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and the production sector expanded by 0.9%. The construction sector north of the Border grew by 0.3%, and agriculture, forestry and fishing output increased by 1.7%.
Business services and finance made the greatest contribution towards Scotland’s quarterly GDP growth in the three months to June, the Scottish Government chief economist directorate noted.
The strength of the second-quarter Scottish GDP figures was definitely eye-catching in these very difficult economic times.
And especially so given Scotland’s economy recorded only marginal growth in the first quarter.
It is important to bear this relatively weaker first quarter in mind in the comparisons with the UK as a whole.
Scotland grew only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the opening three months of this year. The UK as a whole expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter.
And, comparing the second quarter of this year with the same period of 2025, Scottish GDP was up by 1.1% and UK economic output was 1.2% higher.
That said, Scotland’s strong quarter-on-quarter performance in the three months to June is still worth celebrating. What is more, there is hardly any difference between the year-on-year rise in GDP in Scotland and the UK as a whole in the second quarter.
And this shows up the seemingly perpetual narrative of gloom around the Scottish economy, relative to the UK, for what it is: a fantasy.
When it comes to the economy, things are undoubtedly tough in the UK as a whole.
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And Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces an unenviable task in trying to boost UK growth and living standards, especially with Labour having for now ruled out a move back into the European single market, something which would provide a huge fillip to the beleaguered economy.
And of course Scotland, while it voted resoundingly against leaving the European Union, is like the rest of the UK having to pick up the tab for the Conservatives’ hard Brexit.
The UK public finances are tight, and Labour has limited its room for manoeuvre with self-imposed fiscal rules very much like those of the Conservatives. This obviously means knock-on challenges for the public finances in Scotland.
The Middle East crisis has fuelled inflationary pressures, albeit not to the spectacular degree seen in autumn 2022.
So it is important to keep all of this in mind when contemplating that strong 0.7% quarter-on-quarter economic growth north of the Border in the three months to June.
That said, there is absolutely no sign that anyone is getting carried away about the strong growth.
And points of brightness on the economy must be welcomed in these grim times.
There has also been positive news in recent days on Scotland’s engineering sector.
Scottish Engineering chief executive Paul Sheerin said last week as the industry body published its latest quarterly review: “This third quarterly survey of the year maintains an overall upbeat review and outlook for our sector with our headline measures of order intake and output volume remaining pretty positive. Overall optimism is up again, after a concerning drop last quarter despite even stronger order and output measures in that previous period.”
However, while Mr Sheerin flagged the positives, he also struck a cautious tone.
On the optimism readings, he observed the confidence was driven by medium and large companies “with small companies at best flat or just under in the case of optimism”.
He added: “Forecasts are positive across the board, which are welcome for orders, output and staffing, but not so much for prices. The impact of the implementation of the UK Government’s steel trade measures along with the soon to arrive carbon border adjustment measures (CBAM) will have a significant part in that outlook.”
Mr Sheerin declared: “If that sounds like a quarterly review that is damned by faint praise, it’s probably a fair observation given that even the positive aspects – for some – will be tempered by the prospect of further challenges here or on their way.”
The Scottish Engineering chief executive’s detailed analysis of what is going on is always interesting.
And he seems very much, in his comments on the latest quarterly review, to be striking very much the appropriate tone for the times: highlighting the positives while also underlining the challenges ahead.
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