Swinney's summit won't break up UK. But Burnham should worry

No, Andy Burnham will not be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. But that doesn’t mean John Swinney and the Celtic Alliance hasn’t terrified Westminster.

For years, Burnham has admitted devolution isn’t working as it should. Now the problem has been made impossible to ignore.

The UK now has nationalist leaders in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and they have joined forces to put Westminster on notice.

The SNP, Sinn Féin and Plaid Cymru were right to illustrate just how historic this moment was when they gathered in Cardiff.

Will that guarantee independence for Scotland and Wales, and the reunification of Ireland? Don’t bet on it.

The three parties have different ambitions and different timelines for independence.

Swinney has set his sights on a referendum within this parliamentary term. Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Welsh First Minister, has been clear independence is the ultimate goal, but the ambition is currently on more devolved powers.

The Good Friday Agreement provides a route towards Irish reunification, but a border poll depends on the Northern Ireland Secretary judging that there is likely to be majority support for it.

But the UK Government will be worried.

The symbolism in the Cardiff summit is not that the Union’s end is imminent. It was that Westminster has failed to make the Union work for the devolved nations within it.

That is a warning that Burnham should take seriously.

It comes on the back of a significant mishap from the Prime Minister. Standing at the despatch box in the Commons last week, Burnham suggested a second Scottish independence referendum could be granted if there was a “clear consensus”.

Almost immediately, Downing Street backtracked, stating independence was still “off limits”.

The confusion was politically damaging for Westminster.

It allowed Swinney to claim that the Prime Minister had briefly recognised a democratic route to a referendum, only to withdraw it once the political consequences became clear. More importantly, it reinforced the impression that the Government has no settled answer to the constitutional question beyond saying no.

That is not a sustainable strategy.

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The legal position remains a major barrier to independence. The Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold an independence referendum without the consent of the UK Government. The Cardiff memorandum cannot change that.

And a joint appearance by nationalist leaders cannot create the public support, legal authority or practical arrangements required to break up the United Kingdom.

But Westminster should not confuse the absence of an immediate route to independence with evidence of the strength of the Union. The fact that independence is unlikely does not mean the current settlement is safe.

But it also can’t reduce the argument of whether Swinney can win a referendum tomorrow.

If Swinney’s serious about independence, he must first rebuild the public support his party has lost. Holyrood may have a pro-independence majority,  with the SNP and Greens holding 73 of the 129 seats, but collectively both parties secured around 40% of the vote in May’s election, with the pro-Union parties making up the rest.

Polling on independence has been steady at around 50/50, but transferring that into a nationwide ballot is a significant risk, one that even Swinney knows he isn’t ready for.

That is why the significance of the Cardiff summit lies elsewhere.

It is not evidence that the break up of the United Kingdom is imminent. It is evidence that Westminster’s refusal to address the weaknesses of devolution could be Burnham’s biggest error.

His task is not to simply dismiss or rule out independence. It is to repair devolution: give the devolved governments a meaningful voice, settle recurring disputes over powers and funding, and treat Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as partners rather than subordinate administrations.

The Cardiff summit will not make Andy Burnham the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. But it should persuade him that the Union cannot be sustained by ruling out independence alone. If Burnham wants to preserve the UK, he must first make it work.