UNDER-PRESSURE households faced a worse-than-expected hit in July as food prices spiked and pushed inflation to another 40-year high.

Consumer Prices Index inflation (CPI) reached 10.1% last month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed.

The increase was largely down to food prices and staples including toilet rolls and toothbrushes, the ONS said.

The measure had been expected to reach 9.8%, according to an average of analysts' estimates calculated by Pantheon Macroeconomics.

It marks the largest gap in how inflation hits rich and poor over a decade.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies is warning that the poorest fifth of households could face inflation of 18% in October, because they spend a larger proportion of their budgets on energy and food. For the richest it will be 11%.

The IFS uses slightly different calculations to the ONS and its analysis was out before the official inflation figure this morning.

Director of the IFS, Paul Johnson said: "If [the] Bank of England is right and inflation hits 13% in October then poorer households will experience inflation of around 18%. That's because they spend such a large fraction of their budgets on energy and food, prices of which are rising so fast."

As the cost of living continues to rise, Citizens Advice warned that one in four people in the UK will not be able to pay their energy bills in October based on current forecasts.

Of those who won’t be able to pay in October, 68% have a household income of less than £30,000.

It said that some 3.2 million disabled people and 4.4 million families with children in the UK will not be able to afford autumn’s predicted rise in energy bills and will end up almost £100-a-month in the red.

Energy prices are expected to rise even further with multiple analysts predicting the bills cap set by market regulator Ofgem would rise from £1971 to £3600.

Energy consultancy Auxilione said that at today’s prices the cap might rise to £4,722 in January before hitting £5,601 in April.

Citizens Advice says its advice takes into account the energy rebate and cost-of-living payments already being offered by the government, showing that increasing costs are outstripping support.

It is calling for further interventions from government, as well as asking energy regulator Ofgem to ensure people are protected from the most serious consequences of falling into arrears.

The organisation's chief executive Dame Clare Moriarty says there is a risk of "a winter of despair for millions."

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: "A wide range of price rises drove inflation up again this month.

The Herald:

"Food prices rose notably, particularly bakery products, dairy, meat and vegetables, which was also reflected in higher takeaway prices.

"Price rises in other staple items, such as pet food, toilet rolls, toothbrushes and deodorants, also pushed up inflation in July.

"Driven by higher demand, the price for package holidays rose, after falling at the same time last year, while air fares also increased.

"The cost of both raw materials and goods leaving factories continued to rise, driven by the price of metals and food respectively."

Inflation is expected to fall back a little in August; however, according to estimates it could soar to 13.3% in October when the energy price cap rises again.

The Bank of England thinks this could push the UK into a recession.

Whether or not the Bank's October prediction proves true remains to be seen. Its forecast for July's CPI was 9.9%, 0.2 percentage points behind where the ONS has now measured it.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the difference between the Bank's forecast and the measurement is mainly down to surging food prices.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 12.7%, the ONS said, a rise from 9.8% the month before and the highest since August 2008.

The statisticians track the prices of 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages categories, and in July all of them rose.

The biggest impacts on inflation were from bread and cereals, and milk, cheese and eggs.

Shop-bought milk, cheddar and yoghurt prices "increased notably", the ONS said.

There were also smaller impacts from rising cooked ham and bacon prices, vegetables, sugar and jam, among other things.

Data shows that the annual motor fuels inflation rate alone has soared since May, 2020 when prices dropped by 17%. The annual rise in June was at 44%.

Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi said: "I understand that times are tough, and people are worried about increases in prices that countries around the world are facing.

"Although there are no easy solutions, we are helping where we can through a £37 billion support package, with further payments for those on the lowest incomes, pensioners and the disabled, and £400 off energy bills for everyone in the coming months.

"Getting inflation under control is my top priority, and we are taking action through strong, independent monetary policy, responsible tax and spending decisions, and reforms to boost productivity and growth."

Kien Tan, director of retail strategy at PwC, said: "Supermarkets have had little choice but to pass on price increases from suppliers, themselves contending with unprecedented inflation in raw material and ingredient input costs.

"This has been particularly acute in labour and utility intensive categories like dairy, with reports of the price of a pint of milk having more than doubled in some stores since the start of the year."

Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi said getting inflation under control is his "top priority".

"I understand that times are tough, and people are worried about increases in prices that countries around the world are facing," he says.

"Although there are no easy solutions, we are helping where we can through a £37bn support package, with further payments for those on the lowest incomes, pensioners and the disabled, and £400 off energy bills for everyone in the coming months."

But Boris Johnson's spokesman has said no further interventions will be forthcoming before September 5 when either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss will become the new prime minister.

That is despite Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer having put come up with his own "radical" package of measures he says would help families cope this winter.

Lord Rose, the chairman of Asda and former boss of Marks & Spencer, has advocated “targeted action” for “those who need it most”. He stressed that inflation must be “killed” because it’s “pernicious” and “erodes wealth over time”.

Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “We must get a grip on rising inflation leaving families worried sick about making ends meet.

“Labour’s fully-costed plan to freeze the energy price cap will bring inflation down this winter, easing the burden on households and businesses.

“It will mean that households won’t pay a penny more for their energy bills this winter.

“People are worried sick and while the Tories are busy fighting and ignoring the scale of this crisis, only Labour can give Britain the fresh start it needs.”

Meanwhile, the official data showed that Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation reached 12.3% in July.

In the past this measure has been used to cap the following year's price increases on some train tickets in England, Scotland and Wales. With inflation running away, the UK Government will keep the 2023 rises below RPI.

However, it did not reveal how it plans to calculate the rises.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.8% in July, up from 8.2%.