Public safety concern as Scots police chiefs warn thousands of jobs at risk through budget 'cuts'

And a new analysis made by Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority, suggests without additional cash from the Scottish Government, the force could have to cut officer numbers by 4,500.

It comes as new figures showed police numbers in Scotland have hit their lowest level in almost 14 years. There were 16,610 full-time equivalent (FTE) officers in Scotland on June 30, 2022, marking a 679 decline, of officers, or -3.9%, in the last year from 30 June 2021.

Police Scotland also employs over 5000 professional and support staff working behind the scenes.

In August police officers in Scotland agreed a deal which would see their wages hiked by 5%.

It marked the conclusion of sometime fractious negotiations between Police Scotland, the Scottish Police Authority, the Scottish Government and staff representatives.

Frustrated officers - who have legal limits on what industrial action they are allowed to take - removed "all goodwill" after being originally being offered a flat £565 increase.

The police chiefs' examination looked into the Resource Spending Review (RSR) published by the Scottish Government in May which set out the parameters for spending to 2026-27.

The Scottish government said it was to freeze funding of policing, early years learning and local government, and slash arts, trade and cultural funding for the next five years, to plug a deep hole in its budgets.

Kate Forbes, the Scottish finance secretary, said the cuts – estimated to total about 8% in real terms – were needed to greatly increase spending on health by £7bn, social welfare by £6bn and on climate action, including investing £1.8bn in low-carbon homes.

Police chiefs warn if the 5% pay award was replicated in 2023-24, this would represent an additional £55m of "inflationary pressure" which would require a reduction of 1,125 full time equivalent officers and staff members.

Repeated 5% awards up to 2026/27 would require savings of £222m, which they said is the equivalent of an average 4,500 headcount cut.

They said that significant reductions in the number of police buildings would also be required in order to save on utilities, non-domestic rates and maintenance costs.

They say there are two options, to protect the size of the workforce through a pay freeze from 2023/24 or cut the workforce.

The police chiefs' analysis states: "Providing citizens with the help they need and deserve will be ever more important as the cost of living crisis drives vulnerability and need in communities. Equally, as financial challenges place public services under pressure, community needs can manifest in criticality and displace upon policing, which is so often the service of first and last resort.

"As has been consistently demonstrated, responsive, effective, operationally competent policing is a pre-requisite for safety and security; for social cohesion; and for a vibrant and sustainable country.

"Should funding allocations follow the parameters of the RSR, this would mean a fundamental reduction in Scottish policing’s capacity and capability to respond to the needs of the public we serve.

"The implications for community policing; operational effectiveness; our ability to police major events and demonstrations fairly and safely; and to protect people from existing and emerging threats are significant."

Police Scotland insists the force has already “progressed much of the reform now being asked of the public sector as a whole”.

The submission adds that in doing this it has “returned £200 million annually to the public purse”.

A flat-cash settlement could also result in a reduction in capacity for forensic services, with this having “wider negative outcomes for the criminal justice system”, the paper states, It adds that maintaining all existing police buildings within a flat-cash settlement would also not be viable “necessitating further rationalisation of the estate”.

And the move towards ultra-low-emission vehicles “would stall” because “forecast funding would be insufficient to purchase the level of charging infrastructure required to support a fully electric fleet”.

Justice Secretary Keith Brown said: “Our largely fixed budgets and limited fiscal powers means the UK Government needs to provide the Scottish Government with sufficient funding to support public services and the economy in these difficult times.

“We have already made difficult choices to support pay offers in 2022-23 and rightly so, as our police workforce deserve this.

“While policing matters and budgetary prioritisation are always a matter for the Chief Constable, we remain fully committed to using the resources available to us to support the vital work of Police Scotland in delivering effective and responsive policing across Scotland.

“We will work with justice organisations including Police Scotland and SPA to develop and co-ordinate their delivery plans in response to the high-level Spending Review allocations.

“Despite UK Government austerity we have increased police funding year-on-year since 2016-17 and have invested more than £10 billion in policing since the creation of Police Scotland in 2013.”

A Treasury spokesperson said: “The responsibility for funding public services is largely devolved across the UK, but we have provided the Scottish Government with a record £41 billion per year for the next three years – the highest spending review settlement since devolution."