THE global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused widespread changes in the energy market that will spell the end of fossil fuels forever.
The International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook acknowledges the economic hit from reduced supplies of Russian oil, natural gas and coal but registered an environmental best case scenario in which no investment in new fossil fuel projects is needed.
The IEA's executive director Fatih Birol said a major increase in clean energy investment was being seen.
"And as a result, we are going to see clean energy, electric cars, solar, hydrogen, nuclear power, slowly but surely, replacing fossil fuels," he said.
The IEA chief said that the biggest driver of the shift to renewables was not climate change - but energy security.
"Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come," said Mr Birol.
"The energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system."
It comes as the United Nations warned the world was heading for a "climate catastrophe" in a report that showed how far off track nations are on cutting global warming pollution.
A UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report said there was a huge gap between the action needed to limit global temperature rises to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and what countries are doing and have pledged to do.
Current climate policies put the world on track for warming of 2.8C and plans countries have set out for action in the next decade would lead to long-term temperature rises of 2.4-2.6C, which UN secretary general Antonio Guterres labelled as “economy-destroying levels of global heating”.
The IEA said that global clean energy investment is set to rise to more than $2 trillion (£1.72 trillion) a year by 2030, up by half from current levels, while "international energy markets undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries adjust to the rupture of Russia-Europe (energy) flows, the IEA said.
“Energy security concerns, climate commitments … industrial policies — the three of them coming together is a very powerful combination,” said Mr Birol.
A statement accompanying the IEA analysis, said its Stated Policies Scenario had “global demand for every fossil fuel exhibiting a peak or plateau" for the first time in the agency's analysis history.
Global emissions of fossil fuels leading to climate change will peak by 2025, as coal use falls within the next several years, natural gas demand plateaus by 2030, and oil demand levels off in the middle of the next decade before falling.
"One of the effects of Russia’s actions is that the era of rapid growth in natural gas demand draws to a close," the IEA said, saying there was a rise in global demand for gas of less than 5% between last year and 2030.
Under the outlook, “coal use falls back within the next few years, natural gas demand reaches a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles … mean that oil demand levels off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century.”
The IEA’s statement also noted, however, that there was a huge amount of work to be done in order to keep global warming to 1.5C.
Under its Stated Policies Scenario, fossil fuels’ share in the planet’s energy mix would be a little over 60% by the middle of this century.
“Global CO2 emissions fall back slowly from a high point of 37 billion tonnes per year to 32 billion tonnes by 2050,” it added.
“This would be associated with a rise of around 2.5C in global average temperatures by 2100, far from enough to avoid severe climate change impacts.”
The IEA last year shocked the energy industry by saying lower demand and a rise in low emissions fuels made new oil and gas fields beyond 2021 unnecessary in its most climate-friendly Net Zero Emissions scenario.
On Russia, the IEA said the country, which is the world's largest fossil fuel exporter, will never regain the share of the global energy supply mix it had before its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's supply of internationally traded energy will fall to 13% by 2030 from about 20% in 2021, the IEA projects.
The IEA said short-term gaps created by the reduction in fossil fuel supplies from Russia will need to be plugged from elsewhere.
The strongest candidates are projects with "short lead times" which rapidly bring oil and gas supplies to market without locking in dependency.
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