More oil could be extracted from the North Sea, more economically than was previously thought, according to the oil tycoon Sir Ian Wood.
But such an outcome requires change, and it needs to take place soon. One of the reasons Sir Ian has delivered a mid-term account of his thoughts, as he carries out the work he was commissioned to do by the UK Government, is the sheer urgency of the situation, he says.
While his final report on the subject will not be published until next year, he is inviting comments on the interim findings and they provide considerable food for thought.
A decline in exploration last year is part of a trend which could hamper efforts to recover the maximum possible potential from North Sea oil fields. A more efficient programme of extraction could see oil and gas reserves in the North Sea providing an additional £200 billion of revenue to the UK, or perhaps to an independent Scotland.
The means of achieving this outcome, according to Sir Ian, is a new arms-length regulator, which he says will encourage firms working on the UK continental shelf to collaborate more and in particular to share infrastructure. The model is similar to that of neighbouring North Sea regulators, and the new regulator should be funded by industry, he says.
His findings are welcome for the opportunities they offer for the economy, and the fuel security advantages of avoiding the need to import oil and gas.
Questions remain to be answered, however. In particular, any new regulator must still have significant powers to ensure extraction is responsible and safe. Environmental concerns are also far from trivial. Exploiting the world's known oil and gas reserves is deeply problematic for the climate, as was clearly set out in a stark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in September.
Yet it is hard to envisage any future government turning its back on the prosperity offered by maximising possible yield from the North Sea.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't explore alternatives. There is still potential for Scottish companies to lead in areas such as green energy technologies. Nuclear power should remain part of our energy mix in the context of the need to reduce carbon emissions. But oil is important too.
We know the sums involved are highly volatile and the £200bn figure inevitably speculative. But as news about job losses in Govan last week made clear, Scotland continues to need alternatives to heavy industry.
The issue is inevitably political. Should the proposed windfall be realised - 15%-20% more than expected on current figures - it will surely reawaken discussions about a Scottish oil fund. The Scottish Government's proposal appeared to be an idea set to founder on a likely need for tax rises or spending cuts to make it happen.
If more oil can be extracted, more economically, that is a proposal that may be back on the table, although Sir Ian's recommendations will be relevant whatever the outcome of next year's independence referendum.
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