It was always likely that there would be some kind of short-term spike in the housing market ahead of the introduction of the Scottish Government's Land and Business Transaction Tax (LBTT) this week.
For those paying more than £325,000, buying a house will suddenly become more expensive on April 1st and the buyers are naturally keen to seal the deal in the next 48 hours to avoid the extra charge. It is a rush for the finishing line that is likely to lead to some pretty brisk business at the higher end of the market both today and tomorrow.
What effect the change in the tax regime will have in the longer term is less certain. Some estate agents have suggested LBTT will squeeze the sales of luxury homes and that the whole housing market could stagnate as a result. But with the market continuing to recover, it seems more likely that the short-term effect of buyers trying to rush sales through will settle down in time.
The new LBTT regime is also an improvement for most buyers. The average house price in Scotland, at around £190,000, is well below the £325,000 threshold when LBTT starts to rise significantly, which means the vast majority of buyers will not face a rise in tax. Indeed, most house buyers will face fewer upfront costs which could help deliver a boost to the market as buying a house becomes slightly more affordable. The effect would be most welcome for first-time buyers, who have faced a hard time for too long.
The stated intention of the finance secretary John Swinney in introducing the changes was to apply a more progressive principle to the way house sales are taxed, and in attempting to align the tax system more closely with ability to pay, it is a welcome step. But the government will have to keep a close watch on the tax bands to ensure a progressive effect is actually being achieved.
The initial plan was to apply the tax rate of 10 per cent on homes between £250,000 and £1 million, until Mr Swinney was forced to adjust his proposals when the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne also made changes to stamp duty south of the Border. But even the new arrangement, which applies the 10 per cent rate between £325,000 and £750,000, raises some questions about the effect it could have on Scots buying family homes.
Raising the starting point for the 10 per cent rate to £325,000 was a step in the right direction, but there are parts of Scotland where residents pay a premium and where the cost of a four-bedroom house is on average £400,000. For families buying into that market, the rise in tax will be significant. One solution would be to introduce more bands in the system so that the tax could be more gradually increased from £325,000 to £750,000. This would recognise the fact that the kind of buyer who is paying £325,000 for a house may be in a very different financial situation to one paying three-quarters of a million.
At the other end of the market, the fact that buyers paying less than £145,000 are now exempt from property tax is undoubtedly good news. However, it does not address the central problem for such buyers which is the lack of homes at the right price. Reforming the tax system may well help the housing market, and could make help make it more progressive. But there is something else the Scottish Government could do that would help the market much more: increase investment in the building of more affordable homes.
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