How the world views a Brexit

Conducted in 27 of the member states (the UK was excluded) it shows that of the 28,000 people polled only 60 per cent want the UK to remain in the EU. A further 30 per cent are undecided or have no thoughts on the matter while only ten per cent actively want the UK to go. The five countries most in favour of the UK remaining within the EU are Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Ireland and Romania.

From a historical point of view Malta, Portugal and Ireland have all at one time or another enjoyed close relations with the UK - but are decisions of this kind really taken on memories of a vital Mediterranean naval base, friendship during the wars against Napoleon Bonaparte or a frequently troubled relationship across the Irish Sea?

More telling is the number of supporters who are recent entrants to the EU. If they see the UK as a good bet for labour opportunities that would help to explain why Romania, Bulgaria and Poland feature so prominently amongst those opposed to Brexit. But by the same token both Cyprus and the Czech Republic come bottom of the league meaning that they seem not to mind whether or not the UK leaves or stays. Both are new entrants and neither has much cause to dislike the UK although Cyprus’s colonial past might be a problem.

Rather it seems that those who have little interest in Brexit might be those countries which are themselves disenchanted by the EU or have fared badly in their dealings with Brussels. Of the larger countries who were original members of the European project France and Austria are in the lower half of the table which can be explained perhaps by growing irritation with the UK’s demands to be treated as a separate case. It might also explain why Germany is exactly in the middle of the league, not taking any chances with the final outcome. Both Italy and Spain are in the upper half with almost 70 per cent showing approval for the UK remaining.

As the EU is a coalition of equals – in theory at least – the opinion of any member should also carry the same weight, but some are more equal than others. Germany and France have always been the most influential. Hard-nosed politics, though, trumps everything and new concepts such as immigration and terrorism dominate the political scene. History too is a factor. Both countries carry a lot of baggage as far as the UK is concerned and while neither wants to see their island neighbour leave Europe they do not want them to gain any unfair advantage.

AMERICA

As one of the UK’s oldest allies the US has a keen interest in the outcome of the EU referendum but the reality is that the subject is not hot gossip in Washington. As things stand the present administration would be dismayed by a vote to leave and President Obama has placed his cards on the table by describing the UK’s continuing presence in Brussels as a “cornerstone” of the edifices which were put in place at the end of the Second World War to ensure global peace. While many Americans might not care for the EU they are uncomfortably aware that it has been one of the main reasons why war has been kept at bay in Europe. Earlier this month the idea was reinforced by Michael Froman, US Trade Representative, when he announced that it was “absolutely clear that Britain has a greater voice at the trade table being part of the EU”.

Froman went further by claiming that if there were a “Brexit” the UK would face the same trade barriers as other countries such as China, Brazil or India. As the US is the UK’s second largest market outside the EU this would have obvious implications for the future of the economic relationship between the two countries.

There is an understanding in Washington that the UK’s presence in the EU gives it diplomatic backbone which allows the organisation to act coherently in problem areas such as Russia’s presence in Ukraine and the Middle East. Not only does the UK have well equipped and well led armed forces but they are considered to be more robust. There is also a long history of cooperation between US and UK forces especially in the Nato alliance but US commanders have been irritated by successive reductions in the UK defence budget and by a growing belief that London was losing its value as a strategic partner in world affairs. In that sense there is some justification in arguments that America's desire to keep the UK in the EU is governed by self-interest.

By the time that the result of the referendum is known the US will have a new leader and that will be bound to have a bearing on the relationship, especially if the UK votes to leave the EU. It would be fair to say that the issue has hardly intruded on US domestic politics even though this is an election year. Indeed it is a sign of the lack of interest in the subject in Washington that Boris Johnson’s decision to support Brexit caused no interest at all apart from sparking a number of comparisons with Donald Trump. These were not just prompted by their respective hair styles.

RUSSIA

Only one world leader is banking on the possibility that the UK will vote to leave the EU at the June referendum: Putin. He has never hidden the fact that he is not particularly keen on the notion of a united Europe. This has little to do with the EU’s economic power but it has everything to do with the fact that the union has become an important element in the West’s foreign and security policy. Nato might have the armed forces and the nuclear option but the EU is the game breaker when it comes to dealing with thorny diplomatic issues such as the need to confront the Islamic State, the requirement to monitor Iran’s nuclear industry and, especially irritating to Putin, the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia over its policies in Ukraine.

This is a major bugbear for Russian. Sanctions have worked. In public Putin puts a brave face on the adverse effects but he is also hugely irritated by them and would like them to be lifted.

He also knows that the EU would be hard pushed to maintain the sanctions without the UK’s support as that helps to give it global weight and makes the organisation a power to be reckoned with in its own right. Shorn of the UK’s support the EU will be a weaker entity and there is already evidence that some member states are minded to end sanctions when they come up for renewal this summer. It is common knowledge that London has been a major influence in steadying EU nerves over the policy of imposing sanctions against Russia. In 2014, at the beginning of the diplomatic freeze David Cameron was particularly vociferous in his condemnation of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Putin’s support for the insurgents in eastern Ukraine. There was also outrage from the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine and the suspected role of Russian forces in the incident. Then came further problems in the shape of continuing British concern about the complicity of Russian FSB security services in the murder of Alexander Litvinenko in London a decade ago.

An added complication in the relationship between Moscow and London can be found in Putin’s recent policies in Syria where Russian forces have been deployed to support the government led by Assad. Ostensibly they are in the region to oppose Islamic State but they have caused anger in European capitals by hitting civilian targets such as hospitals and this has triggered concern that a new Cold War could be in the offing.