THIS year’s meeting of what some might justifiably say is the world’s largest and most ineffectual international organisation, the G20, had an added tinge of edginess as it hosted the first face to face meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
As the heads of the world’s 19 leading economies plus the EU gathered in Hamburg, most eyes were on this widely-anticipated encounter between the US and Russian leaders.
As the veteran businessman and the former spy shook hands yesterday, few observers doubted who would likely come off best from the summit.
From Mr Putin’s perspective, he will firmly believe he can gain concessions on sanctions against Russia by promising Mr Trump cooperation in Syria.
Mr Trump, on the other hand, would be pleased to settle for strengthening and stabilising US-Russia relations without being played. Few within the US administration however are holding their breath on that one.
If Mr Trump was on message, he would be looking to let Mr Putin know that transatlantic resolve and unity is still something to be reckoned with. He would make clear the reaffirmation of Washington’s commitment to Nato’s Article 5 and enhanced deterrence, and stress to Mr Putin he will not tolerate Moscow’s interference or undermining of democratic systems or efforts to drive a wedge between the US and Europe.
Hopes were not high that Mr Trump would do any of these things given the poor state of relations with a number of European countries and institutions.
Matters were not helped by the admission earlier this week by US National Security Adviser, HR McMaster that the US administration has “no specific agenda” for the meeting. Mr Putin surely was better prepared.
Nevertheless, Mr Trump will remain at the epicentre of much of the tension at the summit. Only this week Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the G20 states to continue working together on climate protection, despite the fact Mr Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
As things stand, Mr Trump will find himself locking horns with all G20 members on other big-ticket issues too like like free trade.
Yet despite the US being centre stage, some have said this summit could mark the moment of the US’s formal abdication as the world’s pre-eminent power. Should this happen then that role will not be taken up by a single successor, but fall to a new unstable quartet of Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel.
All this is taking place against a backdrop of international crises that include North Korea, mass migration, Ukraine and serious fallouts between the Gulf states.
But despite myriad problems, expectations of what will come out of the summit are low. As one Russian media observer writing in the newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta pointed out this week: “The main thing is that nothing gets worse.”
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