THE tortured process whereby Britain takes its leave of the EU continues apace. Theresa May, on her first trip to sub-Saharan Africa, may be intent on deepening and strengthening its post-Brexit partnerships, but in Britain demand is growing for a second referendum. So, too, however, are the dire warnings of what might happen if one is granted.
Both sides in the debate are gearing up for six pivotal months of trench warfare before Britain departs the EU next March 29. One issue that will need to be resolved is whether there ought to be a People’s Vote, whereby the Brexit deal is put to the public. May is strongly disinclined to grant one, but the pressure is growing.
Sir Vince Cable maintains that if Labour changes its position on a second referendum and attracts support from smaller parties such as the SNP, that would leave only the Conservatives against. “If some of them shift,” he went on, “that’s it.”
The SNP hierarchy is notably split on the issue, of course. Some, including the First Minister, are wary of supporting a second vote lest it jeopardise the chances of holding another re-running the 2014independence referendum. Others see a People’s Vote on Brexit as the best way of keeping Britain, and Scotland, in the EU.
Much hinges on the Labour Party. As we report today, a leaked memo shows the People’s Vote campaign is seeking to convert Labour to its cause by aiming to secure a motion on the issue at its conference in Liverpool next month. The group’s polling suggests voters targeted by Labour were more likely to back a second EU referendum, and to favour remaining in the bloc, than the electorate as a whole.
The memo is at pains to stress that the group is keen to have a cross-party consensus on the issue and is not trying to undermine Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership on the subject. Intriguingly, the grassroots pro-Corbyn movement, Momentum, will meet this weekend to discuss whether to back a second EU referendum. Given the numbers at its disposal, it could be a significant event if it decides to support a People’s Vote.
Considerable resources are being channelled into the campaign for a new vote. George Soros, the philanthropist, gave £500,000 to the pro-EU group, Best for Britain. Julian Dunkerton, of the Superdry fashion business, donated £1 million to the People’s Vote campaign. On the other side, Leave Means Leave, equally determined, is planning a £5m war-chest drive, with Nigel Farage pledging to relaunch his referendum campaign.
Theresa May has her work cut out. Her Chequers Brexit plan lies in shreds. Her authority is on shaky ground. There are six months to go, and much to discuss with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier. She should enjoy her time in Africa while she can.
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