SO the Conservative Party is finally driving out its best people. Well, you can see why Anna Soubry and her friends left. That’s what people usually do when the Ukip contingent arrive. I once found myself cornered in a hotel lounge by a couple who looked like twinkly-eyed grandparents but turned out to be a vicious, northern version of Neil and Christine Hamilton. The room cleared more quickly than a Momentum meeting addressed by Chuka Umunna.

How true is the claim by Soubry and others that the Tories have been subjected to a “purple” takeover? Some ministers demur (well, they would, wouldn’t they?) but there are signs that something serious is afoot. The Tory moderate Nick Boles, who opposes a no-deal Brexit (the heretic!) has been fighting deselection and says that a large increase in his local party membership is largely down to the arrival of former Ukip supporters who are seeking to “impose their politics on the party”. Sarah Wollaston was fighting deselection before resigning the whip and joining the Independent Group – like Nicky Morgan and Guto Bebb, she had been targeted by Ukip-funder Arron Banks’s operation Leave.eu, which urged Brexit supporters to join her local party in order to deselect her. Sir Alan Duncan is also facing a struggle for his political life.

Then there is the preternatural strength of the European Research Group, a secretive band of pro-Brexit MPs numbering around 60 who run their own whips and have an almost hypnotic hold over the Prime Minister in spite of representing less than 20% of the Tory parliamentary party. They have an effective relationship with the right-wing media, which has been happy to play along with their erroneous claim to be the true guarantors of the referendum result.

It was all right while the ERG was just a band of overgrown students’ union fanatics who couldn’t do any real harm (as their failure to muster enough support in the Commons for their stance on Brexit appeared to show) but if they are recasting the membership of the Tory party in their own image, then we should all be worried. Theresa May has promised to stand down before the next general election, with the latest hints are that she could go in the summer (if Brexit is passed). That could mean the country has a new Tory Prime Minister for three years, in the run-up to the next general election. Because that leader would be selected, not by the British people but by the Tory membership, the result could be alarming.

If the Brexit saga up until now has felt like a trippy red-wine-and-cheese dream, then imagine that: Boris Johnson in Downing Street. A Spitting Image puppet would have more gravitas, and probably more self-control. And it’s not just Johnson. We could see, for example, Rees-Mogg clattering into work in his horse-drawn carriage at the Foreign Office, Steve Baker slashing aid spending at Dfid, Owen Paterson as Business Secretary dumping environmental protections – you get the idea.

Analysis: Corbyn and May face up to political reality and shift Brexit positions

These are free market ideologues who go to bed at night warmed by the thought of putting stacks of EU regulations through the shredder. They are the champions of a right-wing agenda that advocates lower taxes and a smaller state – this after years of austerity. Three years may not be enough time to enact their vision before a dismayed electorate pitched them out but it would be time enough to do some damage.

One likely result would be an upsurge of support for independence. There is no knowing as yet exactly what impact Brexit, if it finally happens, will have on that question – we don’t know whether Remain-voting Scots who previously voted No will lose patience and back leaving the UK, or whether they will be so chastened by the almighty Brexit mess that they run a mile from another big constitutional upheaval. But if on top of Brexit you got a cartoonish hard-right Tory government at Westminster, then voters in Scotland might very well decide that the moment had come to press “go” on the ejector seat.

It goes without saying that Scotland would not want a Brexiteer PM, but there is no evidence, it must be said, that English voters would either (there is now a pro-Remain majority south of the border and the latest polls suggest a clear majority for centre or left-of-centre parties at a general election if the Independent Group stood). But thanks to our “broken politics” (copyright Umunna, Soubry et el) the fanatics could still capture Downing Street on a technicality. The only way to avert such a scenario would be for Conservative MPs to put up two moderate candidates from whom the Blukippy membership could choose the winner, but it may be hard for them to avoid nominating a Brexiteer if their constituency associations are demanding it. Theresa May, we hear, will do whatever is in her power to prevent Johnson from being nominated, which would be reassuring if it weren’t for the fact that she has about as much power as Larry, the Downing Street cat. Michael Gove seems to be positioning himself as the compromise candidate, a Brexiteer who has stayed loyal to May, but let’s not forget that this is the man who thought nothing of rubbishing experts that opposed Brexit.

Of course, if there is one thing we have learned over recent months it is that political predictions are for mugs. Other outcomes are available – there could be a second referendum (a bit more likely now thanks to Labour’s change of heart); there could still be a snap election if there are enough Tory defections (though that threat seems to be receding); Theresa May could resign and beg the Independent Group to let her sit with them. It remains to be seen whether Jeremy Corbyn’s belated backing for a People’s Vote will boost the party’s beleaguered showing in the polls, or whether the new Independent Group, reconstituted as a political party, will be infiltrated by brazenly moderate, level-headed activists and surge through the middle (or, alternatively, split the left-of-centre vote). Ifs, buts, maybes. But for now, the Tories are clinging tenaciously to office and have it in their power to cause an awful lot more trouble.