From pork pies to big dogs, the drama at Westminster is heating up this week as Boris Johnson’s leadership looks on the verge of collapse.
The latest development includes an alleged plot by the 2019 intake of Conservative MPs to oust the Prime Minister, who have been meeting in secret over the last two days.
The plan, dubbed the ‘pork pie plot’ as it was hosted by MP for Melton Alicia Kearns, may well be enough to bring down Mr Johnson, if the threshold of 54 letters to the 1922 Committee has not yet been reached.
Several sources have told The Herald that the magic number has already been reached, while others say it is “very close” and could come within the next 24 hours. It is said that many people were less than happy about Mr Johnson’s interview yesterday, in which he said he was not told that he would be breaking lockdown rules by attending a garden party in May 2020, nor was he told that the event itself was against the law.
This excuse, combined with the Prime Minister’s unnecessary self-imposed isolation over the past five days, has not impressed his Tory colleagues and he will have a mammoth task to convince them to row back on the apparent inevitable tide of letters making their way to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady’s desk.
It appears that he woke up to the seriousness of this threat last night, when he took various 2019 Tory MPs in to his office to convince them not to move against him. Reports of the meetings include that Mr Johnson was sobbing while making his case – a claim that has been dismissed by Downing Street straight off the bat this morning.
What happens next, if 54 Tory backbenchers do call for a vote of no confidence, is also far from certain. Procedurally, Sir Graham would make an announcement and a vote would be held shortly afterwards. This relies on Boris Johnson remaining in place until then – he could go of his own accord, unlikely as this would seem at present.
The Prime Minister could still survive this vote, as his predecessor Theresa May did, and limp on until May’s council elections.
Boris Johnson is someone who does not give in easily, and is unlikely to throw in the towel. He may promise not to lead the party to another election in the hope of keeping his job for now, or he could continue with the status quo.
The thing which could save, or crucify the Prime Minister, is the heavily anticipated report by Sue Gray, the civil servant looking into the series of alleged parties which took place across Whitehall during the lockdown.
For Ms Gray herself, her career as a civil servant boils down to this moment, and appears caught between a rock and a hard place. It is not her job to recommend criminal proceedings, nor it is her job to say Mr Johnson is, or is not, unfit for office. She will gather the facts, and report what she finds. That report may not come as quickly as anticipated, with Dominic Cummings still to be interviewed by the mandarin and further details of parties emerging on a near-daily basis.
As ever, things move quickly in Westminster. Watch this space.
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