THE numbers are “extraordinary,” said the National Crime Agency. In 2018, just 299 people were recorded crossing the English Channel in flimsy dinghies. So far this year, the number is 25,000. And these are the ones we know about.

Locals in Kent say they see scouts helping unescorted people onto the shore, sometimes at night with torches, so the illegal incomers can disappear quickly into the darkness.

The 25,000 figure is almost double for the same six-month period last year and by the year-end the number could top 60,000; well over the 28,526 souls who crossed the water in 2021.

In August alone, benign weather helped push the numbers to around 9,000; more than the whole of 2020. August 22 saw the largest figure, 1,295, who crossed in 27 boats.

With postings having appeared on TikTok, advertising the crossings at £4,000 a seat, Lucy Moreton from the ISU union, representing Border Force officers, said using the Channel had become an “almost commercial route”.

Noting how over the years the profile of those crossing the water had changed, she said most were now young men, often sporting “prison hair-cuts with prison tattoos”.

Before reaching Britain via the Channel, it’s said some migrants throw anything that could identify them overboard, including passports and mobile phones.

The small boats being used, which once carried 20 people, are getting bigger and now carry 40 or 50. Some predict they will soon carry 100.

Albania is the authorities’ latest focus.

Between 2018 and 2021, around 900 Albanians crossed the Channel but, on just one day last week, more than 700 made the journey, bringing the total so far in 2022 to 6,000.

Priti Patel has struck a deal with Tirana to set up a “rapid removal” scheme, involving Albanian police being stationed at Dover to check the biometric records of their country folk.

The Home Secretary insisted Albania was a “safe and prosperous country” but many of its citizens were being “sold lies by ruthless people-smugglers”. She added: “This abuse of our immigration system and people risking their lives cannot go on.” But, sadly, it is.

Moreton said one “working hypothesis” put the recent increase in Albanians down to replacing those who had been arrested, imprisoned and/or deported.

Enver Solomon of the Refugee Council said the charity had worked with many Albanian refugees, who had been trafficked and were victims of criminal and sexual exploitation, noting: “It’s important to recognise more than half of Albanians who claim asylum in the UK are given refugee protection, which speaks volumes about the clear dangers they are facing.

“Just because a country is not at war doesn’t mean it’s safe for all who live there.”

This goes to the nub of the challenge for any government: being able to distinguish between genuine asylum-seekers, economic migrants and members of organised crime gangs.

The authorities suggest progress is being made. In July, there were 40 arrests and some 60 investigations into suspected Channel smugglers are ongoing although the number of prosecutions is unknown.

The NCA insists its efforts are making an impact. One officer explained: “We are taking out serious criminals…We have got the tools in the box to target serious organised criminals behind this and we are using all those tools.”

One new tool the UK Government has unveiled is deporting illegal migrants 4,000 miles away to Rwanda. No one has yet been removed under the scheme because of legal challenges. Next week, a court hearing is due to begin to determine whether it is lawful.

Patel has hailed the policy as a “world-leading asylum partnership,” the two Tory leadership contenders support it while Boris Johnson insisted it was the "morally right thing to do," which would, “over time, prove a very considerable deterrent”. But over how much time?

The Government’s move follows Australia’s offshoring policy, which Canberra says has “successfully stemmed the flow of illegal maritime arrivals to Australia, disrupted people smuggling ventures within the region and prevented loss of life at sea”.

But critics have highlighted human rights concerns raised by Whitehall officials, questioned Rwanda as a safe destination and insisted the Government scheme is unviable, unlawful, inhuman and expensive.

The Commons Home Affairs Committee has already insisted there is “no clear evidence” the policy would act as a deterrent and called for safe, legal routes for genuine asylum-seekers.

Asked if she thought it was a deterrent, Moreton replied: “No. None whatsoever. Conversely, it’s actually being used as a marketing tool; get over here now before that policy comes into place.”

Official figures put the cost of the UK’s asylum system at a record high, £2.1bn a year; more than double the amount in 2019/20. This reflects the highest number of claims for two decades with record delays for people awaiting a decision.

Britain has a proud history of taking in refugees but the Home Office is creaking under a record asylum backlog with 117,945 people waiting for an initial decision – more than double the 2019 figure – and 166,085 cases described as "work in progress", awaiting a final decision.

Yet most refugees are granted asylum here even if it takes years. More than 90% of applications from Afghan, Eritrean, Syrian and Sudanese asylum-seekers are granted.

However, the continuing growth in migrant numbers is putting a great strain on our social structures, not least at the time of an economic crisis and an impending general election. All of which could raise the temperature on the issue as it is doing in parts of Europe.

As history teaches us, the danger is if moderate politicians cannot provide the solutions which most people seek, then more extreme voices will begin to gain traction.

At present, there are more questions than answers about the number of people crossing the Channel. It’s up to our politicians to come up with not just answers but the right answers.

Whoever has the unenviable job of being the Home Secretary next week will have a huge challenge on their hands. Poisoned chalice will be an understatement.