It is, at least for us political obsessives, near-enough impossible to peel our eyes away from the scarcely imaginable chaos at Westminster.

At the time of writing, Liz Truss has made it to a sixth week as our Prime Minister, Jeremy Hunt has made it to a second week as Chancellor, and Grant Shapps has made it a second day as Home Secretary. Nobody has seen anything like this before. Nobody knows what is going to happen next. There are fires everywhere, and when the Prime Minister puts one out, a mightier one gets lit behind her.

However, here in Scotland, we should peel our eyes away, if only for a moment, to look at a nationally significant document released on Monday by our First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

Though somewhat crude and risking generalisation, it is generally accepted by psephologists that Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum swung to No based largely on the inability of the Yes campaign to convince enough Scots that the economic case was viable. Moreover, since then, it has been a common refrain that the Yes side has done little to persuade the persuadables over the last eight years.

We can presume that 40-or-so per cent of people will vote No at any future referendum, come what may, and the same proportion will vote Yes, come what may. The destination of the remaining 20%, at least half of whom regularly tell pollsters they are undecided, will ultimately determine whether Scotland will ever be an independent country. Polling would indicate that it is fair to categorise these people as non-politically partisan, and likely to cast their vote based on whether they see themselves, their families and their communities being better off in an independent Scotland than as part of the UK.

So a credible proposition for an economically successful independent Scotland is overdue, not least because it remains possible that our second independence referendum could take place in less than a year – 363 days to be precise. Credibility is in the eyes of the beholder. The people who need to find it credible are the 20% who might shift from No to Yes. People like me.

In this still-theoretical referendum next October, are the contents of this paper enough for people like me to vote Yes? The SNP will hope, of course, that dangling the prospect of rejoining the European Union will in, itself, be enough. If there is a single centrepiece to be extracted from this paper, EU membership is it. One can understand why. The vast majority of this magic 20% voted Remain in 2016, and nothing about the first few years of Brexit Britain will have engendered a change of mind.

However, Scotland cannot simply rejoin without consequence. The First Minister, to her credit, outlined the reality that the Customs Union will require border controls between Scotland and England. Were it nor for the brawl taking place down at Westminster, this would surely have become the issue filling our newspapers, radios and televisions in the weeks ahead.

Can we really expect the benefits of more seamless trade with the EU to outweigh the costs of less seamless trade with the rest of the UK, by some distance our largest trading partner? And, even if we accept that, can we really expect Scots to vote for a proposition which puts a barrier, however invisible, between us and our friends and family in the south?

I voted Remain in 2016, but were I to vote Yes in 2023 it would not be in the belief that this will come to fruition; it doesn’t have a cat’s chance in hell.

The EU is, for sure, a more significant issue now than it was in 2014. Then, Scotland’s currency handed the Yes campaign its most wounding moments. Ms Sturgeon’s predecessor Alex Salmond, understanding the advantages of persuading Scots that they could vote for independence and maintain much of what they liked about Britain, and the pitfalls of the reverse, declared that Scotland would simply use sterling. But Scots smelled a rat, and Ms Sturgeon has made it clear that the mistake will not be repeated; there will be a Scottish pound.

That seems, economically, eminently sensible. But Mr Salmond’s view that "soft unionists" need to feel secure remains a valid one. Recent events have given the SNP the chance to affirm that Scotland’s head of state will be King Charles; that is a bonus in this respect. But the pound? Our pound? Are we ready to change currency when we drive a couple of hours to Center Parcs? I am not so sure.

Currency. Borders. These are the emotive emblems with an economic fringe. But an independent Scotland’s central economic ideology is, in reality, the key determinant of the success or otherwise of an independent Scotland. And it is in this that the paper could leave the 20 per cent with as many questions as answers.

This is a group of wavering voters, let us remember, who believe Scotland is capable of thriving as an independent country. They are people who put Scotland first. They are enthusiastic devolutionists. They understand the potential of this place, particularly in industries such as renewable energy, which offers a seismic opportunity to be exploited.

But they are also people who struggle with the concept of neatly fitting square pegs into round holes. How do we improve public service performance if we are not willing to reform them? How do we raise more money to fill our budget deficit when taxes are already rather high? How do we prosper when one of the participants in our government does not believe in economic growth?

How can we, the 20% process that? Do we presume that, after we vote Yes, the adults in the room will stand up and piece together the jigsaw of what makes a successful, small, entrepreneurial country, including the difficult decisions which will inevitably lead to some buyers’ remorse? In other words, do we presume that nationalist leaders will ask their 40% core vote for forgiveness rather than permission?

Or do we, once again, choose the devil we know?

Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters and Zero Matters

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