University access fears as application rejection rate jumps

Dr Mark Corver said the Scottish system was vulnerable to demand fluctuations because of its strict recruitment controls. These are the result of ministers predefining the annual funding for teaching Scottish students, which effectively puts a cap on numbers. Tuition fees elsewhere in Britain – they were axed for Scottish students two decades ago – also mean 18-year-olds north of the Border are much more likely to apply to universities here, with their annual course charges of up to £1,820 covered by Student Awards Agency Scotland.

Demographic trends are adding to the pressure. According to Dr Corver, the UK could see its population of 18-year-olds increase by 25 per cent between 2020 and 2030, while Scotland is set for growth of around 20% or just below.

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Amid signs that demand for university places will remain strong, he has warned the “balmy climate” of ever-increasing applicant choice now looks under threat. He also told The Herald that “fairly fundamental change” would be needed and said there was “perhaps a fairness case” for asking graduates to cover more of the cost of teaching.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Qualifications Authority will on Tuesday publish pupil grades decided under the alternative certification model. Last year, the decision to scrap an algorithm-based moderation system and revert to teacher predictions led to soaring pass rates. If today’s results are again strong compared with those obtained by previous cohorts who sat conventional exams, capacity strains could intensify further.

Dr Corver, co-founder of dataHE, the university data specialists, said: “I think it’s not a simple case of saying the Scottish cap and grant system isn’t working and the English fee and loan system is.

“I think they’ve both got problems. Certainly the potential is there at the moment for the situation to develop so it’s a lot more difficult for young people to get into university over the next decade, and if governments want to avoid that happening, they need to be doing things about it now.”

Analysis of UCAS’s June deadline statistics shows the number of 18-year-old, Scotland-domiciled applicants surged from 17,160 in 2020 to 19,930 this year. There was also an increase in the rejection rate of their applications. Already significantly higher than in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, it shot up from just under 32.5% to a little over 36.3% between 2020 and 2021, marking the first rise since 2016.

It has been suggested that competition for places at "high tariff" universities, such as Edinburgh, will become even more acute.

Dr Corver said: “Unless you adjust the number of places available each year to match the changes in the number of people who have applied, a number control system is inevitably going to lead to harsher treatment of applicants when there’s a surge in demand.”

He warned many may find their aspirations to go to university “thwarted”, adding: “Young people in Scotland faced a fairly low entry rate to university as a starting point, and now there’s a prospect of that getting worse, unless the number of places that are funded at Scottish universities keeps track with the rising population of 18-year-olds.”

Discussing possible solutions, Dr Corver said: “Higher education and student maintenance support is expensive. Ultimately there are only two ways of paying for this cost.

“You can ask both graduates and non-graduates to pay, through general taxation of one form or another. Or you can ask graduates alone to pay, through some form of additional contribution specific to them.

“Graduates clearly benefit more from going to university with – on average – higher salaries and more wealth than those who do not go. So, with safeguards for individual graduates who don’t go on to be high earners, there is perhaps a fairness case for asking graduates to cover more of the cost of their teaching.” The Scottish graduate endowment – introduced following the abolition of tuition fees – was scrapped in 2008.

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A spokesman for Universities Scotland, which represents higher education institutions, said the organisation was “very appreciative” of the Government’s early decision to provide extra funded places for the forthcoming academic year. He added: “To allow universities to plan for any future changes, we need a multi-year settlement from the Scottish Government. That, combined with an uplift in the teaching grant, would position our universities to fulfil their ambition to help Scotland’s economic and social recovery from the pandemic.”

Mary Senior, Scotland Official at the University and College Union, said: "It is hugely encouraging to see record numbers of applicants to and offers from Scotland’s universities.

"This is an overwhelming vote of confidence in the high-quality teaching and support that university staff provide to their students. 

"It is vital that the Scottish Government provides the increased funding needed for student places, especially to ensure universities can continue to meet their fair access targets.

“After years of students from poorer backgrounds struggling to access higher education, we need to protect the progress universities have made on fair access, and increase student numbers overall. Everyone who can benefit from a university education should be supported to do so.”

Jamie Hepburn is Scotland's Further and Higher Education Minister.

The Scottish Government has stressed that a significant proportion of higher education north of the Border is delivered in colleges. Jamie Hepburn, Higher and Further Education Minister, said the UCAS statistics showed a “steep rise” in prospective students looking to study at Scottish institutions, with applicants from the most deprived areas increasing by 11%.

He added: “Our policy on free tuition ensures that, unlike elsewhere in the UK, Scottish students studying in Scotland do not incur additional debt.”