What is the economic message from Nicola Sturgeon’s government? To plead poverty or promote growth?

All of which reminded me that political decisions, in this case taken by a previous UK administration, can have significant consequences, and not always benign.

Then I chanced to be chatting to a joiner, carrying out work at my home, who told me that he used to run his own business, employing 20 people, until Covid intervened. He was now thankful to be in work at all.

Which reminded me that we presently require political thinking and decision making to be extra sharp in order to cope with the economic calamity occasioned by this hideous plague.

READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon or Boris Johnson? Who is your money on to lead us out of Covid crisis?

To be fair, these are extraordinary circumstances. Few anticipated a global pandemic. Few can offer certainty for an economy still enfeebled by the 2008 banking crash.

This week Scotland’s Finance Secretary Kate Forbes published the latest statistical analysis of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland, or GERS.

It showed that Scotland’s notional fiscal position had weakened substantially, through Covid, with a net deficit of 22.4 per cent, including a share of oil. The UK deficit is also exceptionally high although, at 14.2 per cent, it remains below the Scottish level.

Such startling figures inevitably prompted renewed debate about independence. Supporters of the Union said Scotland needed the broad shoulders of the UK. Ms Forbes said these figures resulted from the current constitutional set-up and thus demonstrated the case for independence.

However, thinking about Leith and my joiner, I was more concerned, for the moment, in discerning the economic strategy which the Finance Secretary and her colleagues intend to pursue. Not just under independence, but now.

There was, frankly, little precision on either. Ms Forbes declined to say when the Scottish deficit might be managed down. Covid meant such forecasts were “premature”.

She noted en passant that some countries had sought to embrace fiscal rebalancing without “scarring” the economy. Which hinted at a longer term approach although it was not, she stressed, a blueprint.

Indyref2? Once the Covid crisis was past, Ministers would turn their minds to independence.

Tax? No apparent desire to hike the current devolved levels. Business and workers needed support. She pointed to concomitant efforts to provide business rates relief.

More generally, she promised to “refresh” the Scottish Government’s economic prospectus in the light of the Covid exigencies.

I appreciate all that. To demand immediate certainty and instant answers would be unreasonable. I acknowledge further that Brexit continues to cause potential economic disquiet which has yet to be resolved.

However, it is also fair to report murmurings of decided discontent within Scotland’s business sector as to the direction of policy. Inchoate disquiet which predates Covid.

One experienced business source told me that Ministers “said all the right things” but seemed unable or unwilling to follow these statements up with detailed endeavour.

In particular, my interlocutor noted, there was little of substance with regard to growing the economy, to creating wealth. Business fretted, I was told, that the pending deal with the Greens might lessen the focus on growth still further.

READ MORE: A cross-border conflict? Let the train take the strain

One or two senior Nationalists also worry about what they see as a lack of strategic direction on the economy. Not individual policies; the over-arching approach.

Again, to be fair, such views may partly reflect contemporaneous discontent in these troubled, pandemic days.

But just what is the overall economic strategy of the Scottish Government? Independence, of course. Acquiring the full panoply of economic powers.

But what is to happen meantime? And, from an SNP perspective, what is most likely to persuade Scots to opt for independence? Is it, in effect, pleading poverty: a poverty of ambition and outcome driven by UK Government decisions which Scottish Ministers regard as misapplied?

Or is it confidence? Demonstrating what can be achieved within the limited powers of devolution and inviting Scots to infer how much more could be done within a nimble, adept independent polity?

Supporters of the Union would say neither will serve. That Scotland is better off as she is.

But SNP Ministers yearn for independence and require to make the case. Once again, what is the economic strategy?

In the past, under Alex Salmond, SNP policy was that an independent Scotland would undercut UK corporation tax rates in order to attract business investment. That was dumped in 2015.

A devolved policy of removing Air Passenger Duty was scrapped in 2019, as the focus shifted to environmental protection.

So where now? Scotland has different income tax levels. Research disclosed that, over three years, better-off Scottish taxpayers paid £900m more than they would have done under UK rules. Gains by the lower paid were minimal.

But only £170m went to increased Scottish expenditure because the Treasury trimmed the block grant. Why? The agreed fiscal framework penalises Scotland if our economy fails to match revenue per capita elsewhere in the UK. And it did.

A fiscal framework which is under review, with the Treasury intent on tightening the constraints.

It is entirely legitimate for SNP Ministers to argue that things would be fundamentally different under independence. But, right now, they need to improve our economic performance or face further statistics which are arithmetically abysmal.

So, economic growth? Kate Forbes acquiesced in broad terms, noting that in years gone by, Scotland had faster onshore growth rates than rUK. Again, though, there were relatively few details. To repeat, I understand why, for now.

The SNP Growth Commission of 2018 (the clue is in the name) argued vigorously that an independent Scotland which was candid about the challenges ahead could indeed stimulate the economy.

Introducing the document, the Commission chair Andrew Wilson noted: “Hope must conquer fear, of course, but that hope needs to be grounded in clear-sighted reality and a rigorous plan”.

Quite. Same applies right now.