THERE is no doubt that the current Covid figures, running at more than 6,000 new cases a day for the past week, are extremely alarming. Three Scottish health boards feature in the five worst-hit regional authorities in all of Europe, according to World Health Organisation data for the past week. Lanarkshire and Glasgow have by far the worst per capita figures, with both at more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 of the population: the nearest other areas (Israel and Kosovo) are just over the 700 mark.
This is potentially a huge strain for hospitals, where numbers have doubled over 10 days, but the Government is probably right to judge that it is not yet a justification for reintroducing full-blown or "circuit-breaker" lockdown measures.
Vaccine take-up has been impressive – well over 80 per cent of over-18s (and very nearly everyone over 50 years old) have had both doses, and more than 50 per cent of 16-17 year-olds have had their first. There is no question that this has reduced serious illness, intensive care cases and deaths considerably, but it clearly does not eradicate transmission and variants, and consequently the need for continued vigilance.
Unlike England, we saw an immediate rise in cases after restrictions were eased on August 9, pre-dating the return of schools (though that is no doubt a contributing factor). The reasons for this are unclear, since young people – to their credit – do not seem to be rushing to clubs, nor is there any solid evidence that the hospitality and live events sector is driving an increase in cases.
Those businesses urgently need support to get back on their feet. It is perhaps understandable that events such as the unfortunately-named TRNSMT, which would allow 50,000 people to mingle without masks, should have tried to bounce the Government into producing a means by which they can operate, and thus made restrictions on everyone else more likely.
The Government, as well as supporting the sector, has nonetheless to respond to the rise in cases. Its solution – vaccine passports – while problematic, is probably on balance easier than continuous large-scale testing, and preferable to more coercive measures.
If MSPs approve these plans they will, however, create a sizeable problem of administration and infrastructure. Football clubs and others will want to know what help and exemptions will be given for the logistics, and what to do about, for example, uncertified season ticket holders.
There ought to be no discussion about whether state certification of this sort is undesirable, intrusive, a constraint on liberties, unBritish and all the other objections. It evidently is, which is why politicians (of all sorts, throughout the UK) have been chary of it; and it is a very good reason for building into any rules an acknowledgement of its authoritarian nature, and an assumption that it will be of the shortest possible duration – preferably with legal obligations for any renewal.
But, despite the Government's unpleasant puritanical and prohibitionist tendencies, it is hyperbolic to claim this is a step towards totalitarianism. The practical question is whether it is a proportionate measure, preferable to the alternatives, in unprecedented circumstances.
In a continuing global emergency, after some 10,000 deaths (depending on the measure) here, there is a very strong case for arguing that it is. And opposition politicians, while right to point out its dangers, have a commensurate obligation to suggest better credible options – few of which have been forthcoming.
It is on the practicalities, however, that the Scottish Government will be judged. Printable QR codes for those without smartphones are a start, but the technology and procedures that will be necessary are hardly up and running, and past experience indicates that may not be plain sailing.
The initial failure to follow the example of the other UK governments, and most of Europe, on digital passports by insisting on our own approach created a dog's dinner for travellers, with Scots visitors to France being barred from restaurants. Ministers have previously had trouble answering simple questions, such as how to define a bar or nightclub. That sort of inconsistency must be hammered out as soon as possible, if any scheme is to be workable.
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