John Swinney promises 'financial prospectus' for independence

He said: “There will have to be a financial prospectus. The financial issues are different for absolutely everybody.

“Look at the decisions the UK Government yesterday where manifesto commitments [on tax and pensions] were turned on their head because of the impact of the pandemic. 

“So the world is different and we have to adjust to that and make sure we have a prospectus that is relevant and realistic for the circumstances that we face.”

He said the overall prospectus would be "open and comprehensive and transparent".

It followed a row over Nicola Sturgeon ordering her officials to restart work on a new prospectus for independence, despite lacking the power to hold a referendum and the continued Covid crisis. 

The work had been suspended at the start of the year.

READ MORE: Alba Party kept afloat by money from Salmond, PPE firm and loan

The Scottish Government last produced an independence prospectus in November 2013, when Ms Sturgeon and Alex Salmond published their 650-page White Paper.

It notoriously contained only a single page of financial projections, Annex C on p604.

The “Summary of Scotland’s projected fiscal position” in year one of independence included North Sea revenue of £6.8bn to £7.9bn and a deficit of no more than 3.2 per cent of GDP.

However since then the oil price has slumped, taking revenues close to zero, while the Covid pandemic last year saw Scotland’s nominal deficit almost triple to 22.4% of GDP.

The arrival of Brexit has also created new issues on trade and borders which were not part of the calculation in 2014, and the SNP has changed its position on the currency from a union with sterling to a new Scottish currency 'as soon as praticable'.

Setting out her legislative plans for the year at Holyrood yesterday, Ms Sturgeon said she remained committed to having Indyref2 by the end of 2023, Covid permitting.

However, with Boris Johnson still refusing to grant Holyrood the power to hold a legally watertight vote, Ms Sturgeon did not include a Referendum Bill in her programme.

Her unionists opponents said even restarting work on an independence prospectus was a damaging distraction from the economic recovery, while Mr Salmond’s Alba party accused her and her Green ministers of “kicking the can down the road” on Indyref2.

Speaking on Good Morning Scotland today, Mr Swinney defended the restart of work, given the SNP had promised to focus on the recovery during May’s election campaign. 

He said: “Well there's obviously got to be preparatory work to make sure that we can effectively and properly and openly take forward the question of Independence and the public can be involved in a debate and a discussion about that issue.

“We've said that the referendum, Covid permitting, will take place in the first half of this parliamentary term, and that's by the end of 2023.

“We're taking the preparatory to work to make sure we can have that choice.

“We expect to be in a position where the pandemic is under control, where we are able because of the success of the vaccination programme, and the other mitigation measures that we’re taking, that we will have Covid under control. 

“That's the government's strategy, it's our strategic intent that we are pursuing.” 

Mr Swinney, who is also the Cabinet Secretary for Covid Recovery, said not every civil servant in the Scottish Government was 100% focused on the recovery, and personnel would always be working on other policy areas.

He said: “I think we've got to have a sense of perspective about this. 

“Government has got to address a range of different policy priorities on any given day.

“We are taking the necessary preparatory steps to ensure that Scotland can have the democratic choice that people voted for in the election in 2021, when a majority of members of the Scottish Parliament were elected on a commitment to have a referendum on independence. 

“That is what the Government is going to take the preparatory steps to do, while we take the steps to deal with Covid recovery and all the other priorities that we address within government.

“But we will do that in a safe and sustainable way to make sure that people can have the choice that they voted for.”

READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon's economic adviser warns of 20-year economic transition after independence

Asked how different the prospectus for independence in a 2023 vote would have to be compared to 2014, Mr Swinney said: “The prospectus has got to be open and comprehensive and transparent.

“It's got to address the issues that members of the public will have on their minds and set out the type of vision that we have of what would be the implications of Scotland being able to take the decisions that currently are reserved to the United Kingdom Government, to open up the opportunities to collaborate with our European partners in a way that the United Kingdom government has turned its back on.”

Pressed on the very different financial circumstances, Mr Swinney, a former finance secretary, said: “There will have to be a financial prospectus, but the financial issues are different for absolutely everybody.

“Look at the decisions the UK Government yesterday where manifesto commitments were turned on their head because of the impact of the pandemic. 

“So the world is different and we have to adjust to that and make sure we have a prospectus that is relevant and realistic for the circumstances that we face.”

Earlier this week, it emerged oe of Ms Sturgeon’s new economic advisers had predicted an independent Scotland would need 20 years to move from its current economic model to a new sustainable one, and there was “a complete lack of specificity” in planning for it. 

Professor Mark Blyth of Brown University in Rhode Island also said the economic impact of  independence could be “Brexit times ten” because of the longer and deeper union involved.